Por Dr. Octavio Dilewis Ibarra-TamayoYo estuve en la demostración que se hizo en el Miami Arena, hace una década, con motivo de la presencia de la agrupación denominada "Van Van", cuyo líder, Juan Formel, ha sido siempre un esbirro orgánico de la tiranía castrista.
¡Los diez millones van!, decian los secuestradores de Cuba, la pandilla castrista, y Formel, a doce años del secuestro de nuestra isla por los pandilleros castristas, se adhería a ellos en el carácter de esbirro incipiente, poniendo por nombre a su conjunto musical los "Van Van".
Fuimos un grupo de amigos, entre ellos Pablo Reyes, su esposa Vilma, Nivaldo Pita (hermano del profesor Luis Alberto Pita Santos), mi colega Nick Gutiérrez, otros integrantes de Puente y muchos más; allí nos encontramos con varios compatriotas, entre ellos si mal no recuerdo, Juan Cuéllar, Manuel Prieres, Sarvelio del Valle (EPD), Sasha Tirador, Carlos Deman (EPD) y decenas de otros más.
No fui allí a hacer saber que ese tipo de música no me gusta, lo cual es cierto, tampoco a hacer patente que los de mi generación con un poco de preparación intelectual éramos mayormente seguidores de los Beatles, Rolling Stone y el rock en general, y considerábamos vulgar, barato y carente de presentación el vernos involucrados en ese tipo de crowd (multitud) al que muchos llamábamos "chusma soviética".
A propósito de chusma, la forma indecente en que respondió un sujeto de la raza negra con trenzas (integrante de los "Van Van") a la preciosa reportera del Canal 41 de Miami, Gina Romero, mostró el verdadero rostro de esa gentuza. El sujeto de las trenzas es el mismo que, según me han dicho, hasta tiene una canción en la que se declara comunista. En realidad tipejos como estos lo que son es caras de guante y oportunistas con escaso o nulo valor como persona.
De lo que se trataba entonces y se trata hoy es de que no se nos imponga como un hecho la negación de derechos contra los cubanos por parte de la tiranía personal de Castro. Dicho tirano despojó a los cubanos de todos sus derechos, y cuando devuelve parte de algún derecho a alguien, ¿tenemos que agradecerlo?; ¿hay que agradecer que alguien le devuelva a la víctima una mínima parte de lo que le robó?. Todos los cubanos, músicos o no, tienen el derecho a entrar y salir de su pais cuando quieran, pero no lo pueden ejercer porque le ha sido conculcado por Castro, un tirano asesino y liberticida. Cuando aceptamos sin protestar la presencia de esbirros de la tiranía de Castro, como Formel y otros muchos, estamos aceptando que se prive al resto del pueblo cubano de sus derechos, estamos aceptando que sea un dictador sanguinario y liberticida quien administre los derechos de los cubanos, que son inalienables, excepto cuando se alienan por la fuerza, a golpe de asesinatos y represión, a fuerza de imponer el terror.
Yo estuve en Cuba hace poco más de una década, comienzo de 1999, en activismo anticastrista clandestino. Pero ni por la mente me pasó ir a hospedarme en Varadero porque de hacerlo me habría hecho cómplice de la privación de ese derecho a mis compatriotas secuestrados por Castro en la isla.
Castristas, o esos canallas que por negocios colaboran con el castrato, ¿podrian ponerse el cerebro antes de escribir cosas con las que no podrán manipular a nadie; podrían explicarnos qué derecho tiene una tiranía personal y asesina de administrarle (suprimirle) a los cubanos sus derechos inalienables?.
El hecho de que haya vividores, como Aruca y Miliciano Pérez, que lucran con la miseria y la desgracia que le ha impuesto el asesino Castro al pueblo de Cuba, no hace bueno a ese tirano cruel y asesino, tampoco hace buenos sus actos liberticidas, su supresión de derechos contra los cubanos, incluido el derecho a la vida.
El que un asesino haya estado asesinando por más de cinco décadas, y el que sus secuaces puedan hacerlo por otro medio siglo más, no convierte en aceptable el delito de asesinato al punto de que metamos la cabeza en la arena para que podamos convivir con el crimen sin vomitar cuando se tenga verguenza; dudo que los castristas, cuasicastristas o vividores de la tragedia de Cuba la tengan.
He visto a una tipa del grupito de Hugo Cancio, en un programita de televisión que ya no veo, lo ví por casualidad, burlarse de tal modo de los derechos de los cubanos prisioneros de Castro en la isla que me ha puesto a reventar las arterias y del enojo he vuelto a renovar mis votos por la más completa justicia retributiva, cuando sea posible. Ello significa que llegado el momento del ojo por ojo hay que buscar a esa tipa (hablaba muy mal español), y a toda la comparsa, en cada cueva del mundo en que se escondan, para aplicarle lo que les corresponda en materia de acción punitiva producto de la implementación de la Ley del Talión.
Que vivan con eso, no habrá impunidad, un día pagarán por sus crímenes y en esta vida todo llega, los Castro y la cúpula gansteril castrista en primer lugar. Hugo Cancio y su grupito, Aruca, Andrés Gómez, Inmundo, Lesnick y todos los colaboracionistas con el nazifascismo castrista tendrán su día para rendir cuentas y recibir su parte del ojo por ojo.
Si todos esos canallas cometen sus infamias en la errónea creencia de que resultarán impunes están soñando y su despertar será el comienzo de su larga pesadilla.
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Anonymous said...
Al parecer podríamos calificar de "ignorantes al 98% de los periodistas a nível Mundial pues insisten en llamar Presidente al dictador Raúl Castro.En Cuba no hay elecciones desde hace mas de 50 años, y se ha desatado una histeria sobre la no participación de Cuba en los Centro Americanos de Mayagüez 2010, al no "satisfacer las exigencias del gobierno cubano" el no permitir que sus atletas, nuestros hermanos puedan libremente desplazarse sin ser hostigados por los "entrenadores del equipo cubano "que en un 99% son agentes de la Seguridad del Estado que impiden el que puedan desertar.
Todavía algún "ignorante" pretende decir que el deporte, la música,etc. no están regidos por la política bajo la dictadura cubana.?
Para Cuba ya es hora!
Cambio, no transición!
Antonio M.Abradelo Rodríguez
Delegado en Puerto Rico
Organización Presídio Histórico Cubano
(PPHC).
"Solo con la vida cesará entre nosotros la batalla por la libertad".José Martí.
February 1, 2010 11:12 AM
Anonymous said...
La Iglesia Católica advirtió que la economía cubana corre el riesgo de colapso y pidió reformas al gobierno de Raúl Castro, quien para enfrentar la crisis impulsa un plan de ajuste, sustitución de importaciones y aumento de la eficiencia y la producción.
"La situación económica de Cuba se ha tornado bastante complicada y con visos de caer en picada (...) se ve ahora enfrentada, debido a sus desequilibrios internos, y atenazada por la difícil situación mundial, a un entorno muy preocupante'', según la nueva edición de la revista "Palabra Nueva'' de la Arquidiócesis de La Habana, encabezada por el cardenal Jaime Ortega, que se distribuye a fines de enero.
La política del Gobierno "ha estado marcada por una falta de definición tanto de perspectiva como de medios, secuestrada por la recentralización ideológica que quiere mantener a toda costa un orden de cosas que ahoga al país''.
"Ahora, enfrentado a la severa crisis mundial, parece hacer aguas y sólo tiene como arsenal de respuesta las afirmaciones utópicas y el reajuste vía reducción fuerte de gastos que puede llevar a un colapso socioeconómico'', según el artículo, del sacerdote y máster en Ciencias Económicas, Boris Moreno.
Tras un crecimiento económico de 1,4% en 2009 -de 6% previsto-, el gobierno admitió una grave crisis de liquidez y proyectó un discreto 1,9% para 2010, con medidas de ahorro, recorte de gasto social, y priorización a las inversiones en sectores que generan divisas.
La revista católica, crítica a menudo con el gobierno, sugirió como medidas de ‘‘mínimo acceso'' la promoción de la pequeña y mediana empresa, seguridad para la inversión extranjera, que el gobierno permita a los ciudadanos "opinar sin que ‘‘implique represalias'', promover las exportaciones, unificación de la moneda, una reforma empresarial y entrada de capitales.
Pero a juicio de Moreno "no se vislumbra ninguna señal'' de los cambios que anunció Raúl Castro tras relevar a su hermano Fidel hace más de tres años y "la desesperanza'' y la crisis podrían "romper la frágil cohesión social''.
Raúl Castro, de 78 años, dice tener conciencia de las esperanzas de los cubanos sobre cambios profundos y rápidos, pero advirtió recientemente que "no puede haber espacio a los riesgos de la improvisación y el apresuramiento'', para preservar el modelo socialista.
El gobierno pide a los cubanos trabajo, disciplina y realismo. "Necesitamos ser exactos, racionales en todos nuestros gastos (...) si no lo hacemos así y empezamos a pedir más y más, llega un momento que no hay más'', dijo el domingo el vicepresidente José Ramón Machado.
La situación que enfrenta la economía cubana (95% en manos del Estado) obedece al arrastre de ineficiencias internas, burocracia y corrupción, a la crisis internacional, las secuelas de tres huracanes en 2008 y el embargo de Estados Unidos, señalan las autoridades.
Pese a que el gobierno busca impulsar la eficiencia con el pago por rendimiento laboral, la productividad decreció 1,1% en 2009. Persiste la burocracia, los robos al Estado para nutrir el mercado negro y el desestímulo porque el salario medio es de 20 dólares al mes, en una sociedad habituada al paternalismo estatal, con salud y educación gratis, y servicios subsidiados.
February 1, 2010 11:14 AM
Anonymous said...
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February 1, 2010 11:17 AM
Anonymous said...
El legado de Fidel Castro, al pueblo de Cuba. Por Marzo Fernández. (extracto)
1.-Castro, uno de los gobernantes mas ricos del mundo. El quinto según la Revista Forbes.
2.-Pais paralizado en el tiempo, bloqueado al exterior, donde ver o oir emisora extranjera, leer revistas o acceso al Internet conlleva altas condenas de cárcel.
3.-Pais con mas alta inmigracion del mundo mas del 23 % de la población fuera del pais. Unico país que prohibe la salida al extranjero a personalidades que reciben premios internacionales; inclusive el regreso al país que los vió nacer. Para moverse internamente se requieren permisos oficiales.
4.-Tasas de suicidios mas altas del mundo, superada por Japón, 42/100mil hab.
5.-Tasa de divorcios más alta del area 65% en los primeros 2 años de matrimonio.
6.-Serios problemas de identidad nacional, más de 3 millones han solicitado la ciudadania española y cerca de medio millon han optado por visas de USA.
7.-Población penal mas alta del mundo 300 mil reclusos de 11,2 millones hab y el mas alto índice de fusilamientos mas de 5 mil en los últimos 50 años.
8.-Serios problemas raciales. Solo 6% dirigentes son negros. Mas de 60% de población es mestiza. El 80% de la poblacion penal negra menor 40 años. Universidades matricula de negros es del 22%.
9.-Alto grado de corrupción, llevando al encarcelamiento y fusilamiento de generales, ministros por tráfico de drogas robo, etc. Inclusive la elite del poder como Buró Político no ha estado exenta de vulgares delitos como robo, apropiación indebida de recursos del estado, tráfico de influencia, dulce vida, etc.
10.-Convertida en paraiso fiscal para capitales, lavado de dinero y apoyo, protección y exportación terrorismo internacional. Banca Suiza sancionada por lavado de dollares desde Cuba. Estuvo a punto de Holocausto Nuclear. Politica ayuda incondicional a todos los movimientos terroristas del mundo.
11.-Envio de tropas a mas de 10 paises, sacrificando mas de 30 mil cubanos. Mas de un 76% negros.
12.-Unico pais del mundo donde la Declaracion Derechos del Hombre es delito condenable con años de cárcel, disentir o estar en contra de la politica del gobierno es alta traición perseguido por seguridad. La represión se manifiesta en todos los sectores de la vida socio-económica del país.
February 1, 2010 11:25 AM
Anonymous said...
“Ese es el viejito que inventó el hambre”. Por Rafael M. Estevez. (extracto)
Dos anécdotas sucedidas en Cuba. La primera me la acaba de relatar un amigo llegado de la isla después de esperar por casi 8 años para salir del Paraíso de los hermanos que la desgobiernan. En la tarde de un domingo fue con su esposa e hijo a uno de los dos cines que quedan en Marianao, la antigua “Ciudad que Progresa”, tratando de cambiar de ambiente. Ambos teatros están en muy mal estado a veces no hay funciones por días. Proyectaron noticias de las bondades que hay en China y Rusia, países con buenas relaciones con la satrapía cubana. Al proyectar las de Rusia, se vió al malvado, perverso, tétrico y maligno Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. Desde el fondo del teatro se escuchó una voz de barítono que dijo: "Ese es el viejito que inventó el Hambre", las risas no se hicieron esperar y por varios minutos empezaron a aplaudir. Un policía que estaba afuera ordenó interrumpir la función y encendieron las luces y durante 10 minutos amenazó y dijo algunas malas palabras, sin respuesta. Llamó por refuerzos y vinieron otros tres, que no pudieron arrestar al que dijo semejante verdad y todo terminó felizmente.
Lo sucedido se corrió por el barrio, pero nunca los que sabían quien fue el que lo dijo se dejaron amedentrar a pesar que los policías juraron encontrar al que lo dijo. Hasta el momento de emigrar nadie delató al ciudadano que hizo el chiste que es la pura realidad porque el comunismo te mata de dos maneras, fusilándote o de hambre. Hubo otra que sucedió en las afueras del Metropolitan, en Almendares y propiedad del desaparecido Federico Piñero, que hacía el personaje de gallego con Alberto Garrido en “Chicharito y Sopeira”. Llegaron unos milicianos con la actitud que siempre los caracteriza y preguntaron: "Den un paso al frente los que hayan estado en la dictadura?",... Uno de los jóvenes que estaba respondió: "¿En qué dictadura?". Las risas no se hicieron esperar y los milicianos no les quedó más remedio que también reirse y se fueron contentos de la ocurrencia del joven. En un sistema en que el pueblo está bajo una férrea tiranía, no ha podido silenciar las bromas y el carácter festivo del cubano.
February 1, 2010 11:27 AM
Anonymous said...
Denuncia de Cerámica Roja.
Jorge Alberto Liriano Linares, prisionero desde la prisión Provisional Cerámica Roja, dicta los textos por teléfono y Magaly Norvis Otero Suarez los trascribe.
Camagüey, 27 de enero. — Secuestrado por los órganos de la seguridad del estado cubano, permanecen en prisión los ciudadanos Naurel Lezcano García y su hermano menor Nusvel, ambos acusados por un supuesto e improbable delito de tráfico de persona.
Victimas de un aparatoso y represivo operativo policial efectuado el pasado día 11 de diciembre en su domicilio, ubicado en la calle E No 40 entre Gloria y Final, en el reparto Pillería, municipio Vertiente, donde tuvo lugar un registro sin la orden judicial oficial, ocupando solamente un teléfono celular para posteriormente proceder al secuestro de ambos acusados quienes fueron trasladados al cuartel de investigaciones provincial de la policía política.
Según expresa públicamente Naurel Lezcano en las cámaras de tormento de los órganos de la seguridad del estado, recibieron tratos crueles y fueron torturados hasta el punto que el y su hermano decidieron morir plantados para demostrar su inocencia.
Luego de 14 días de rechazo de alimentos fueron enviados a prisión provisional sin que hasta la fecha el sistema judicial pueda obtener un solo elemento probatorio del delito que pretenden imputarle.
Las esposas de los acusados también fueron detenidas y sometidas a interrogatorios extenuantes y crueles, amenazadas de quitarle el cuidado de sus hijos menores para lograr falsos testimonios contra sus esposos.
Fueron otros de los mecanismo de represión utilizados contra esa familia de origen humilde a quienes se le esta violando todos sus derechos civiles ciudadanos y constitucionales.
Y es que en Cuba después de más de 50 años de dictadura totalitaria el pueblo solo debe esperar lo peor del sistema judicial y sus fuerzas represivas que actúan en total impunidad encubierto por el régimen y sus gobernantes.
February 1, 2010 11:53 AM
Anonymous said...
Arrestan a varios opositores, entre ellos un periodista.
Por Magaly Norvis Otero Suárez.
Centro de Información Hablemos Press.
www.cihpress.com
magaly.otero1963@yahoo.com
La Habana, 27 de enero.― Una decena de activistas de distintas organizaciones opositoras y el corresponsal de Hablemos Press, Raúl Parada Ramírez, fueron arrestado en un violento operativo desplegado por la policía política en el reparto La Catalina en Santiago de las Vegas, en la tarde del miércoles.
Según dijo en una entrevista telefónica Rodolfo Ramírez Cardoso, Presidente del Movimiento Línea Pacifica Democrática, una organización no gubernamental, “los activistas se estaban reuniendo en mi casa, sito en calle 212 número 40937 e/ 409 y 413 reparto la Catalina para realizar un conversatorio sobre José Martí al conmemorarse el 28 de enero, el aniversario 157 de su natalicio”.
Rodolfo, dijo que entre los arrestados se encuentran Raúl Paradas Ramírez, corresponsal enviado del Centro de Información Hablemos Press, Miguel López Santos, Francisco Manuel Gutiérrez, Orlando Corso, Pastor Pérez Sánchez, Sara Marta Fonseca Quevedo, Miguel Argel Leiva Isad entre otros opositores y también Rodolfo Ramírez Hernández, su hijo, de 21 años de edad, ex integrante del grupo musical Los Latinos.
Ramírez Cardoso, explicó que había salido a buscar a Rodolfo Nada Ortega, (minusválido) un activista de su partido cuando al regreso fue avisado por los vecinos que los antes mencionados habían sido sacados de la casa por agentes de la policía nacional represiva que recibían ordenes de oficiales de la seguridad.
Al cierre de la nota Rodolfo Noda informó que en el reparto la Catalina se encontraba desplazado un operativo de la policía política de gran envergadura. Y aseguró que otro grupo de opositores había sido arrestado en la calle.
También Odaly Zurma González Naya, activista de derechos humanos y periodista, residente en Santiago de las Vegas dijo que oficiales de la seguridad se habían presentado en su casa para advertirle que no saliera pues se encontraba bajo arresto domiciliario.
February 1, 2010 11:54 AM
Anonymous said...
Falta de medicamentos en las farmacias.
Por Jaime Leygonier.
La Habana.― En las farmacias habaneras falta desde diciembre el colirio Timolol 0.5%, indispensable para el tratamiento de los pacientes de glaucoma.
Este medicamento es uno de los que vende muy controlados el gobierno, por venta una vez al mes, previa anotación en una tarjeta del paciente.
Documento llamado" Tarjetón", que consigue el enfermo con trámites de obtención y entrega en la farmacia de un certificado médico, y que pierde si no compra el medicamento durante tres meses.
Esa pérdida lo obliga a reiniciar los tramites de obtención del tarjetón para "tener derecho" a comprar el medicamento cuya falta así además del perjuicio de carecer de medicación ocasiona el inconveniente de estos trámites.
Hace décadas que en las farmacias escasean temporalmente los medicamentos o son totalmente retirados de la venta. Algunos de los productos en ese caso son:
Las farmacias no venden yodo, mercurio cromo, venditas o curitas, gotas nasales, bicarbonato, algodón (el algodón, si reaparece como sustituto ocasional de los tampones, lo venden a las mujeres por cartilla de racionamiento).
Desde principios de los 60, el estado prohibió todo producto que contuviera glicerina, para evitar lo emplearan en confección de explosivos.
Rara vez venden las farmacias anti- ácidos. Cuando aparecen termómetros los venden por receta y cartilla de racionamiento. El alcohol no lo venden desde hace más de 20 años, pese a que Cuba es productora y lo emplea en industrias de bebidas alcohólicas.
February 1, 2010 11:55 AM
Anonymous said...
· El NO como Caballo de Troya.
Nominación y elección de candidatos alternativos durante el proceso electoral del gobierno castrista en la primavera de 2010.
Esta es una ocasión, respaldada por la Ley Electoral vigente, para que la oposición política pueda darse a conocer dentro de la comunidad y establecer un vínculo directo con la ciudadanía. Además, posibilita un marco “legal” el de ser elegidos algunos de estos candidatos, que figuren con un respaldo institucional para promover proyectos comunitarios y dar espacios de autodeterminación a la ciudadanía.
El sistema totalitario que rige los destinos del país desde hace más de medio siglo, utilizará todos los medios a su alcance: descrédito, chantaje, control, miedo, terror, división y la fuerza de ser necesaria, para frenar a los candidatos pro democracia en el proceso electoral.
Nuestra participación en las llamadas elecciones cubanas no es un reconocimiento al sistema político ni a su supuesta legalidad. Al contrario, presentarse como candidato alternativo en las asambleas de nominación es un claro acto de desafío y resistencia civil. Es un reto ante el régimen con todas las secuelas que trae este acto de expresarse en público contra el gobierno.
Para proteger a nuestros candidatos desde ahora, llamamos a la comunidad internacional, a la prensa independiente y acreditada en el país y, a los grupos que monitorean la problemática del respeto a los derechos humanos a fin que se presenten en las asambleas de nominación, el día fijado para elegir a los delegados de circunscripción (concejales). Y, con su presencia apoyen moralmente y validen la transparencia de la votación.
Nuestros candidatos de ser elegidos, actuarán como Caballos de Troya, con su actitud en defensa de la ciudadanía respaldando sus demandas y peticiones. Retarán las estructuras y leyes del régimen demostrando la ineficacia de las políticas que lleva a cabo el gobierno que preside Raúl Castro y la Séptima Legislatura de la Asamblea Nacional.
Este tipo de propuesta, con sus lógicas diferencias, fue utilizada en la España franquista y la Polonia comunista, posibilitando en estos países un tránsito al Estado de Derecho.
February 1, 2010 11:56 AM
Anonymous said...
· El NO para derrumbar moralmente al régimen.
De forma paralela, llamamos a la ciudadanía para que, donde no existan candidatos alternativos, escriban en la boleta NO. Un NO que actúe como voto de castigo y que a su vez muestre el compromiso con la Nación Opositora.
De igual modo, desde ahora y hasta que se renueve el parlamento cubano en el 2012, el NO se convierta en el mensaje de protesta más efectivo. Al hacerlo visible, y de esta manera educamos a la ciudadanía en la filosofía de la resistencia pacífica. Que es invadir la Asamblea del gobierno en la base, léase en la circunscripción (el barrio) y ganar.
Para las autoridades y sus representantes, cada NO debe ser un mensaje claro de que los cubanos estamos cansados de que se nos quiera robar nuestro futuro. Y, que se pretenda mantener un sistema político-económico que ha demostrado con creces el sufrimiento y penuria de millones de cubanos, que sólo sirve para beneficiar a un grupo de miembros de la nomenklatura comunista.
Si logramos multiplicar el NO, podremos alcanzar seis millones de votos NO en diciembre del 2012 de los 8 millones y medio de votantes potenciales y con esta acción provocar el derrumbe moral del régimen.
No es una idea nuestra, en Chile bajo Pinochet, Alemania del Este en 1989 y Eslovaquia diez años después, el NO de la población obligó a pactar con la oposición y facilitar el retorno a la democracia.
February 1, 2010 11:57 AM
Anonymous said...
· El NO como elemento unificador de la oposición política.
Durante décadas la policía política ha sido efectiva impidiendo que los activistas prodemocráticos nos vinculemos al pueblo. Cuando se hace más evidente la crisis del anciano régimen, es oportuno utilizar la Campaña por el NO para cuestionar al sistema y aumentar nuestra capacidad de convocatoria.
La Campaña por el Vota NO es una plataforma de lanzamiento para futuras iniciativas pro democráticas. Deja de lado a los caudillos, los mega-proyectos y credos políticos, responde a la necesidad de mostrar a millones de cubanos una vía segura, legal y secreta para expresar el desacuerdo con el régimen totalitario.
February 1, 2010 11:57 AM
Anonymous said...
Frente a un adversario poderoso todavía, el recurso supremo es la unidad.
La oposición chavista así lo comprendió, y en diciembre de 2007 impidió que fructificara una iniciativa que facilitaría al presidente venezolano mantenerse de forma perpetua en el poder con su socialismo irrevocable. Ahora también, dejando de lado innecesarios protagonismos y diferencias ideológicas, concurrirán de forma articulada a las elecciones parlamentarias del presente año.
Eventos como Concilio Cubano, el Congreso de la Nación Cubana, el Proyecto Varela, el acto del 20 de mayo de 2005 promovido por la Asamblea Para Promover la Sociedad Civil, la Campaña por Una Sola Moneda, el Congreso del Presidio Político cubano o las iniciativas realizadas por el Arco Progresista, por sólo mencionar algunos ejemplos, juntaron a amplios sectores de la disidencia y oposición política cubana. Demostraron que cuando hay unión de pensamiento y acción es posible dar pasos de avance en el logro de nuestras aspiraciones democráticas.
La Campaña por el Vota NO parte del consenso, del trabajo en equipo y una visión objetiva de nuestra realidad. Es una herramienta para vincularnos de forma directa con el pueblo y dar a conocer nuestras propuestas. Está respaldada por la Constitución y las leyes vigentes, que aún cuando el gobierno las viola de forma sistemática, brindan un margen de cobertura para llevarla a cabo.
Por último, durante décadas el régimen ha creado una telaraña de compromisos y miedos que atan al ciudadano obligándolo a vivir con una doble moral. La Campaña por el Vota NO sólo le pide cinco segundos de su tiempo, para votar por el candidato alternativo o plasmar el NO donde quiera y sea visible. Son sólo cinco segundos que pondrán fin a más de cincuenta años de totalitarismo.
Dificultades hay muchas pero es hora ya de cambiar nuestro destino.
February 1, 2010 11:58 AM
Anonymous said...
¡EL NO ES UN SÍ POR EL FUTURO, LA LIBERTAD Y EL RESPETO A NUESTROS DERECHOS!
Ciudadanos que respaldan esta iniciativa:
Alberto A. Arozarena González
Abigail Ortega Beltrán
Alexander Ortega Martínez
Alexis Gómez Rodríguez
Alfredo Gutiérrez Fleitas
Alfredo Utset León
Ángela Digna Pérez Firrera
Ariel Ramos Acosta
Arnel Herrera Padrón
Asela Vega Castillo
Camilo Díaz Martín
Carlos A. Fernández Sánchez
Carlos N. Álvarez Elías
Carlos Nodarse González
Carlos Ríos García
Carlos Ríos Otero
Carlos Suarez Licour
Charles Enelvis Rodríguez
Ciro J. Torres Arcia
Conrado Rodríguez Suarez
Constantín Durán
Damián Perera
Dioselis Blanco Ramírez
Edel Bárbaro Nodarse
Edelmis Rodríguez Lobaina
Edilberto Rodríguez Osorio
Eliosbel Garriga Cabrera
Emilio Hechavarría Sánchez
Esteban Ajete Abascal
Frank Delgado Macías
German Fuentes Barata
Giraldo Borrego Márquez
Giselda Castro Tort
Gliselia Camejo Corrales
Ignacio Ramos Valdés
Jesús M. Cáceres Hernández
José A. Martínez Marques
José Ramón Avalo
José Reyes Cañizares
Juan Carlos Fernández Hernández
Lady Fernández Sánchez
Lázaro Monzón López
Lázaro Pedro M. Calderín Tápanes
Lázaro R. Pérez García
Leo Jiménez Ojeda
Lester Cabrera Pérez
Luis E. Valdés Nodarse
Luis Cino Álvarez
Luis R. Hernández Rodríguez
Magalis Otero Suárez
Mayté González Castro
Mamiuska Rodríguez Serrano
Mario Izquierdo Sotolongo
Mercedes Reigoza Orozco
Miguel Morejón Román
Milayes Fumero Fumero
Minaldo Ramos Salgado
Mireya Cruz Morales
Miriam Torres Balmaseda
Olga María Pérez Acosta
Omayda Padrón Azcuy
Orlando Fundora Álvarez
February 1, 2010 12:00 PM
Anonymous said...
Durante un desayuno informativo del Fórum Europa patrocinado por Asisa, BT y Red Eléctrica, Díaz Ferrán afirmó que los empresarios no son la "excepción a la crisis" y añadió que han padecido sus efectos y las condiciones "durísimas" que han supuesto el cierre de más de 300.000 empresas.
Subrayó la dificultad por la que atraviesan los empresarios, muchos de los cuales han tenido que comprometer su patrimonio, pero señaló que, a pesar de ello, mantienen la firma voluntad de seguir "luchando, arriesgando e invirtiendo".
Díaz Ferrán recordó que las empresas de la CEOE dan trabajo a más de 12 millones de trabajadores, al tiempo que subrayó que la organización seguirá trabajando "en equipo", tomando decisiones con "consenso", ejes de conducta que continuarán guiando a la patronal "en unos momentos en los que la unidad es más fuerte que nunca".
Preguntado sobre si los problemas al frente de Air Comet le influyen a la hora de presidir la patronal, dijo que mientras que los empresarios le apoyen "seguirá" y, en relación a la posible presión del Gobierno, descartó cualquier intromisión en el futuro. Recordó asimismo que en el momento del cierre de Air Comet ya no era propietario de la aerolínea, después de que ésta se vendiera a principios de diciembre.
Las propuestas laborales del Gobierno se "quedan cortas"
Por otro lado, Díaz Ferrán aseguró hoy que el listado de propuestas que contempla la reforma laboral en la que trabaja el Gobierno "se queda corto", por lo que adelantó que la CEOE se planteará "con altura de miras, sin perímetros y líneas rojas" una lectura amplia de la propuesta "con ambición, realismo, altura de miras y la mejor disposición al diálogo y al acuerdo".
"Debemos abordar esta reforma con la tenacidad y esfuerzos necesarios para que (la reforma) sea útil para las empresas y los trabajadores", señaló, y recordó que esta reforma no contempla algunos cambios fiscales necesarios para los empresarios, alguna propuesta energética o elementos que permitan la recuperación del crédito.
Sobre la propuesta de la patronal para modificar el despido, Díaz Ferrán aseguró que la CEOE no plantea disminuir las garantías o derechos de los trabajadores, sino que baraja la posibilidad de crear un nuevo tipo de contrato estable para algunos colectivos, como los parados o los jóvenes que no tienen trabajo, aunque aseguró que no es el tema principal del diálogo social.
Aún así, celebró que se haya abierto el debate nacional sobre la necesidad de llevar a cabo la "imprescindible" reforma del mercado laboral para salir de la crisis y asentar las bases de un nuevo patrón de crecimiento, al tiempo que pidió al Ejecutivo que siga avanzando en esta dirección y ofreció la colaboración de la patronal que nunca planteará "líneas rojas" a ninguna negociación.
Partidario de alargar la vida laboral hasta los 70 años
Asimismo, dijo hoy que la esperanza de vida aumenta permanentemente y, por tanto, "no me parece mal" que se eleve 70 años, aunque señaló que esta cuestión debería estudiarse en la mesa del diálogo social.
El presidente de la patronal también señaló que le parece "razonable" que no haya jubilaciones con 54 y 55 años, y que "no casa lo uno con lo otro", por lo que consideró necesario buscar soluciones en los dos sentidos.
February 1, 2010 12:03 PM
Anonymous said...
Uno de los mayores expertos del mundo en renta fija, el estadounidense Bill Gross (Pimco), ha dicho hoy que hay que evitar la inversión en deuda pública de países con fuerte deterioro de sus cuentas públicas, como España
En este nuevo entorno económico resulta instructivo observar que el mundo operativo es ‘nuevo’ y que la utilización de modelos históricos y previsiones econométricas basadas en la experiencia de las últimas décadas podría no sólo ser inútil, sino contraproductiva. Cuando el des-apalancamiento y la des-regulación no solo se ralentizan sino que se mueven en territorio recesionista de la mano del des-apalancamiento y la des-regulación, entonces hay que mirar a los ejemplos históricos en los que se han producido esas circunstancias. Existen dos excelentes estudios que ayudan en ese tema – el primero, un estudio de ocho siglos de crisis financieras por Carmen Reinhart y Kenneth Rogoff titulado ‘Esta vez es diferente’, y el segundo, un studio del McKinsey Global Institute que habla de “Deuda y des-apalancamiento: La burbuja de crédito global y sus consecuencias económicas”.
El libro de Reinhart/Rogoff halba principalmente de la deuda pública que se hincha en respuesta a las crisis financieras. Se trata de un estudio voluminoso, y académico pero aporta muchas conclusiones desde el análisis de siglos de ciclos de deuda soberana. Dice así:
El verdadero legado de las crisis bancarias es una gran deuda pública, mucho más allá de los costes directos pro los paquetes de ayuda. La media de la deuda remanente de un país se duplica en los tres años que siguen a la crisis.
La resaca de las crisis bancarias está asociada con un aumento medio de siete puntos porcentuales en la tasa de desempleo, que se mantiene elevada durante cinco años. Una vez que la deuda pública de un país excede el 90% de su PIB, su crecimiento económico se ralentiza en un punto porcentual.
Sus conclusiones son paralelas a los sucesos de los últimos doce meses y sugieren que la ‘nueva normalidad’ bien podría ser descrita como el “test de la confianza histórica”. Estos ejemplos tienden a confirmar que las cirsis bancarias vienen seguidas por un des-apalancamiento del sector privado junto a una sustitución y aumento de la deuda pública, lo que reduce el crecimiento económico y la rentabildiad de los activos financieros. Los países más vulnerables en 2010 están incluidos en el gráfico “El anillo de fuego”. Estos países de la zona roja son lo que tiene una mayor probabilidad de que su deuda pública exceda el 90% de su PIB en unos pocos años, lo que recortaría su PIB en un 1% o más. Los amarillos o verdes son los más conservadores y potencialmente más solventes, con el potencial para un mayor crecimiento.
February 1, 2010 12:08 PM
Anonymous said...
Un estudio diferente del Grupo McKinsey analiza el actual apalancamiento en la economía total (deuda de hogares, empresas y gobiernos) y revisa la historia, donde encuentra 32 ejemplos de des-apalancamiento sostenido tras una crisis financiera. Las conclusiones son que: El des-apalancamiento termina dos años después del incio de la crisis (2008 en este caso) y dura de seis a siete años.
En cerca del 50% de los casos, el des-apalancamiento resulta en un prolongado periodo de ‘apretarse el cinturón’ que ejerce un lastre significativo en el crecimiento en el PIB. También, el des-apalancamiento resulta en impagos de la deuda tanto pública como corporativa, o un aumento de la inflación, todo lo cual es una forma de herejía para los inversores.
Las condiciones iniciales son importantes
Las condiciones iniciales son importantes porque la capacidad de un país de responder a la crisis está relacionada con el tamaño de su deuda existente y porque indica el potencial futuro de su financiación ¿Es una novedad que en esta nueva normalidad China, India, Brasil y otras economías en desarrollo lo hayan hecho mejor que sus homólogos del G-7? Nuestra nueva normalidad distingue entre el crecimiento económico de las economías emergentes y desarrolladas, previendo un mejor futuro para los primeros frente a los segundos. “Escalada” podría ser una descripción conservadora del futuro de los países desarrollados. “Estable” podría ser más applicable a mucha deuda soberana emergente.
Las tendencias de los tipos de interés en los mercados desarrollados no siguen las mismas condiciones observadas durante la reciente Gran Moderación. La ruta bajista de las rentabilidades para muchas econonías del G-7 fue similar en las últimas décadas a excepción de la amalgama de las dos Alemanias y la experiencia japonesa que todavía se mantiene aislada. ¿Debería un inversor esperar una ola alcista correlativa en los próximos años? No. No solo han empezado ya las expectativas económicas a ensanchar los diferenciales de la deuda, sino que las condiciones iniciales de esa deuda serán muy importantes, pues influyen en la inflación y los tipos de interés en los años siguientes. Cada uno de los mercados de bonos de las economías desarrolladas presenta aspectos interesantes que merece la pena vigilar. 1) Japón con el envejecimiento de su población y necesidad de financiación externa, 2) EEUU con su enorme déficit, 3) Europa con sus miembros por separado – Alemania, un ahorrador extremo y productor productivo, España y Grecia con su excesiva dependencia sobre la deuda y 4) el Reino Unido, con los mayores niveles de deuda y una economía orientada a las finanzas – expuesta como Londres a las oscuras aguas del des-apalancamiento
February 1, 2010 12:08 PM
Anonymous said...
SABMiller, la segunda empresa productora de cerveza del mundo, dijo que habrá más oportunidades de crecer a través de adquisiciones en América Latina luego de perder la oportunidad de comprar la división de cerveza de Fomento Económico Mexicano SAB, según informó el sitio Bloomberg News
Perder la puja por la compañía mexicana a manos de Heineken NV "no es el fin del mundo", dijo Barry Smith, el director general latinoamericano de SABMiller durante un seminario realizado en Londres. "Sigo pensando que hay oportunidades de compra en América Latina".
El fabricante de Águila redujo el pronóstico de crecimiento de su volumen en América Latina debido a un aumento del impuesto al consumo en Colombia, que constituye más de 50% de las ganancias de SABMiller en la región.
América Latina, que aporta más del 25% de las ganancias de la compañía, debería beneficiarse de un incremento del consumo per cápita conforme se reanuda el crecimiento económico y los consumidores pasan de las bebidas alcohólicas locales a la cerveza, dijo Smith.
"Las futuras oportunidades de crecimiento en el marco de nuestros mercados actuales son grandes", dijo Smith, que agregó que países como Brasil y Venezuela son perspectivas "muy atractivas".
SABMiller controla alrededor de 98% del mercado colombiano y tiene divisiones en Perú, Ecuador, Panamá, Honduras y El Salvador.
Los volúmenes latinoamericanos crecerán entre 4% y 6% a "mediano plazo", dijo la empresa. El pronóstico anterior de SABMiller era de entre 5% y 7%. El crecimiento estará más en la franja superior que en la inferior del nuevo espectro, dijo Smith.
Un aumento de precio de 8% resulta "inevitable" en Colombia debido a la propuesta de elevar el impuesto al valor agregado en el país el mes próximo y puede reducir el crecimiento del volumen 4,5%, agregó Smith. SABMiller "no se embolsará" el aumento de precio y analiza un segundo incremento en octubre, añadió.
February 1, 2010 12:14 PM
Anonymous said...
Cemex cerró 2009 ligando cuatro trimestres consecutivos con ganancias, en medio de la severa presión que trae en su deuda, informó ayer la propia compañía.
Para el periodo octubre-diciembre del año pasado, la empresa señaló que la utilidad fue de 265 millones de dólares, gracias a las ganancias cambiarias y ganancias en instrumentos financieros, mitigados por una menor utilidad de operación y mayores gastos financieros.
Los resultados en esos rubros, explicaron analistas, obedecieron a no incluir el cargo financiero de la venta de los activos de Australia, realizados en octubre del 2009.
Patricio Rivera Torres, analista de IXE Casa de Bolsa, comentó que considerando este último factor, la empresa hubiera reportado una pérdida de 210 millones de dólares.
Aún así, calificó de positivo este hecho, en razón de que la pérdida (contabilizado el cargo) es menor a los 450 millones de dólares que anticipaba el mercado para la empresa.
Para todo 2009, Cemex reportó una utilidad neta de 436 millones de dólares, cifra en 749 por ciento superior a los 51 millones de dólares de 2008.
Las ventas netas consolidadas sumaron 14 mil 54 millones de dólares en todo el año, 19 por ciento menos.
February 1, 2010 12:17 PM
Anonymous said...
Cemex cerró 2009 ligando cuatro trimestres consecutivos con ganancias, en medio de la severa presión que trae en su deuda, informó ayer la propia compañía.
Para el periodo octubre-diciembre del año pasado, la empresa señaló que la utilidad fue de 265 millones de dólares, gracias a las ganancias cambiarias y ganancias en instrumentos financieros, mitigados por una menor utilidad de operación y mayores gastos financieros.
Los resultados en esos rubros, explicaron analistas, obedecieron a no incluir el cargo financiero de la venta de los activos de Australia, realizados en octubre del 2009.
Patricio Rivera Torres, analista de IXE Casa de Bolsa, comentó que considerando este último factor, la empresa hubiera reportado una pérdida de 210 millones de dólares.
Aún así, calificó de positivo este hecho, en razón de que la pérdida (contabilizado el cargo) es menor a los 450 millones de dólares que anticipaba el mercado para la empresa.
Para todo 2009, Cemex reportó una utilidad neta de 436 millones de dólares, cifra en 749 por ciento superior a los 51 millones de dólares de 2008.
Las ventas netas consolidadas sumaron 14 mil 54 millones de dólares en todo el año, 19 por ciento menos.
February 1, 2010 12:21 PM
Anonymous said...
La firma mexicana de inversión Tresalia Capital adquirió a la pequeña automotriz alemana de reciente creación Artega Motors, orientada a la fabricación de autos deportivos de lujo, según reportes difundidos hoy en medios especializados.
Tresalia Capital, propiedad de la familia Aramburuzabala, con inversiones en múltiples compañías mexicanas, ha tomado el control completo de Artega, informaron Autoblog y Autocar, dos portales de Internet especializados en la industria automotriz.
De acuerdo con las fuentes, Tresalia Capital, que desde 2008 tenía un porcentaje de propiedad en Artega, nombró al ex ingeniero de la BMW Wolfgang Ziebartto para dirigir ahora las operaciones de la compañía.
Artega Motors se apresta a producir en una nueva planta en Delbruck, Alemania, su primer auto, el Artega GT. El automóvil de dos puertas fue diseñado por el danés Henrik Fisker, quien creó también el BMW Z8 y el Aston Martin Vantage.
El auto, mostrado por primera vez en la Exposición Automovilística de Frankfurt en 2007, viene con un chasis de aluminio y una carrocería de fibra de carbono y está dotado con un motor VW V6 de 3.6 litros, con una caja de seis velocidades.
El vehículo, que sigue estilos semejantes a los de Porsche y Ferrari, tendría un costo de más de 100 mil dólares en Alemania.
Según los reportes, Artega planea construir unos 500 automóviles de este tipo por año.
Tresalia Capital es encabezada por María Asunción Aramburuzabala, considerada una de las más fuertes empresarias latinoamericanas y del mundo.
February 1, 2010 12:26 PM
Anonymous said...
Con el objetivo de ofrecer estrategias de inversión patrimoniales y de largo plazo que arrojen rendimientos altamente competitivos, superiores a los que da la banca, Somoza Finamex Inversiones inició operaciones para constituirse en una opción más en el mercado del ahorro y la inversión en México. Esta empresa nace de la asociación del empresario Manuel Somoza Alonso con la Casa de Bolsa Finamex, que es presidida por Eduardo Carrillo, y opera como una subsidiaria de ésta.
Manuel Somoza es ahora el presidente de Somoza Finamex Inversiones y Juan Musi Amioni, su director general. Su mercado de competencia es el segmento de personas físicas patrimoniales, lo que se conoce como la banca privada.
"El propósito es trasladar a nuestros clientes los beneficios de la excelente estrategia de inversión de las carteras Finamex. El año pasado las personas que invirtieron en la cartera Finamex de renta fija, obtuvieron un rendimiento bruto del 11.88 por ciento. Para los que diversificaron sus portafolios con los índices de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, el Standard and Poor's y de otros mercados emergentes, su ganancia fue mayor", dijo hoy Manuel Somoza.
Agregó que la misión de la empresa es construir portafolios de inversión a la medida de cada cliente, que correspondan a sus necesidades futuras, tomando en cuenta los niveles de riesgo que en lo individual cada cliente desea aceptar. La compañía cuenta con ejecutivos especializados para realizar un diagnóstico correcto para diseñar estrategias de inversión personalizadas que maximicen los rendimientos.
Somoza Finamex Inversiones ofrece portafolios de inversión en renta fija en pesos con niveles de riesgo bajo o moderado, así como especializados en cartera gubernamental o en una cartera denominada Finamex. Igualmente ofrece la oportunidad para diversificar los portafolios en renta fija en dólares y otras monedas, así como, de renta variable y en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores y Bolsas internacionales.
La amplia experiencia adquirida de Manuel Somoza, abarca diversos cargos como director General de las operaciones bursátiles en instituciones financieras como Banamex, Nafinsa, Inverméxico, Banco Mexicano y Prudential Bank, entre otros.
Somoza Finamex Inversiones opera en el Distrito Federal, Monterrey y Guadalajara, y tiene presencia en EU por medio de Valores Finamex International Inc.
February 1, 2010 12:29 PM
Anonymous said...
With the new tablet device that is debuting next week, Apple Inc. Chief Executive Steve Jobs is betting he can reshape businesses like textbooks, newspapers and television much the way his iPod revamped the music industry—and expand Apple's influence and revenue as a content middleman.
In developing the device, Apple focused on the role the gadget could play in homes and in classrooms, say people familiar with the situation. The company envisions that the tablet can be shared by multiple family members to read news and check email in homes, these people say.
Despite its digital legacy, Apple is betting that its Tablet can revitalize television, magazines and newspapers in the way iTunes changed music. Ethan Smith joins the News Hub panel to discuss.
Related Video
News Hub: Apple Looks to Reshape Media Apple Tablet on Tap Apple's Tablet, as Imagined by Publishers For classrooms, Apple has been exploring electronic-textbook technology. Apple also has been looking at how content from newspapers and magazines can be presented differently on the tablet, according to the people familiar with the situation. Other people briefed on the device say the tablet will come with a virtual keyboard.
Apple has recently been in discussions with book, magazine and newspaper publishers about how they can work together. The company has talked with New York Times Co., Condé Nast Publications Inc. and HarperCollins Publishers and its owner News Corp., which also owns The Wall Street Journal, over content for the tablet, say people familiar with the talks.
New York Times Chairman Arthur Sulzberger declined to comment in an interview Wednesday on its involvement in the new device except to say, "stay tuned."
Apple is also negotiating with television networks such as CBS Corp. and Walt Disney Co., which owns ABC, for a monthly TV subscription service, the Journal has reported. Apple is also working with videogame publisher Electronic Arts Inc. to show off the tablet's game capabilities, according to one person familiar with the matter.
Journal Community
Vote: What price would you pay for Apple's new tablet device? Discuss: What features would you want to see it have? Vote: Touch, voice - How would you prefer to interact with technology? Vote: What do you most want to buy as your next computer? Apple's strategy contrasts with how other technology companies are approaching media. Notably, Google Inc. offers content to consumers largely free on properties like its video-sharing site YouTube, making relatively little distinction between clips from users and those of professional media companies, although YouTube this week said it plans to experiment with movie rentals. Web sites like Twitter and Facebook also provide outlets for user-generated content.
Mr. Jobs has a longstanding strategy of devising new ways to access and pay for quality content, instead of reinventing the content. Apple's iTunes Store, for instance, became the world's largest music retailer partly by making it easy for people to buy music, most of it from major record labels, by the song instead of by the album. Its digital-media receiver Apple TV was also designed so people can buy and rent movies and television shows.
Mr. Jobs is "supportive of the old guard, and [he] looks to help them by giving them new forms of distribution," says a person who has worked with the CEO. "What drives all of these changes is technology, and Apple has an ability to influence that."
Apple's divide with Google over how it views media content also drives the wedge deeper between the two companies. Apple's iPhone, for example, currently closely integrates Google's mapping and search technology, but a person familiar with the matter said Apple was in serious discussions with Microsoft Corp. to incorporate its Bing search engine into the iPhone as the default search and map technologies. Microsoft declined to comment. The talks were reported earlier by BusinessWeek.
February 1, 2010 12:41 PM
Anonymous said...
Details of how Apple charges for the content on its tablet couldn't be learned, but people familiar with the company's thinking say Apple could change conventional payment structures. One person familiar with the matter said the company was discussing with the New York Times how it could charge for news through iTunes. It is unclear how people will access content wirelessly off the tablet.
An Apple spokesman said the company "doesn't comment on rumors and speculation." Mr. Jobs didn't respond to a request for comment.
Mr. Jobs' effort to repackage and resell more media content isn't without obstacles. He already has faced resistance from television companies and cable-network providers over Apple's desire to license just their best content rather than all of it.
Many music executives complain that it has become a powerful gatekeeper between the labels and customers. What's more, the iTunes Store's music downloads haven't grown fast enough to offset the decline in CD sales for music companies.
On Monday, Apple sent out an invitation to a media event on Jan. 27 "to see our latest creation." The tablet, which Apple currently plans to ship in March, will have about a 10- to 11-inch touch screen, say people familiar with the situation.
Apple CEO Steve Jobs spoke during an event in September 2009.
Apple's tablet foray faces several obstacles. Analysts say demand will depend on its price, which some believe will be about $1,000. Apple must also convince consumers the product is worth buying in addition to an iPhone and a laptop computer. And Apple faces competition from cheaper netbooks and other devices such as Amazon.com Inc.'s Kindle e-book reader.
The tablet's success will depend "on how this product can fit into the user's daily life... and whether you have enough content to make it important enough to use it," said Henry Lu, senior vice president of Taiwanese computer company Micro-Star International Co., which failed at selling a tablet computer a few years ago.
In the academic arena, Apple could face hurdles wooing universities if the tablet doesn't meet their needs or isn't compatible with other computing devices that students are using.
February 1, 2010 12:45 PM
Anonymous said...
Amazon had been hoping to target the market with its 9.7-inch screen Kindle DX e-book reader, for example, but schools said the device wasn't sufficiently interactive and lacked basics such as page numbers and color graphics.
One person familiar with the matter said Apple has put significant resources into designing and programming the device so that it is intuitive to share. This person said Apple has experimented with the ability to leave virtual sticky notes on the device and for the gadget to automatically recognize individuals via a built-in camera. It is unclear whether these features will be included at launch.
Apple's content-related efforts heated up in the fall. In October, Apple sent representatives to the Frankfurt Book Fair, the industry's largest trade fair, according to one person familiar with the matter.
At the same time, Apple pitched media companies on a "best of TV" subscription service to television networks under which customers would pay a monthly fee for on-demand access to programs from a bundle of participating TV networks, giving consumers another way to readily access television content.
At a meeting in New York with one network in October, an Apple executive said the company was specifically looking to access four to six shows per channel, said one person familiar with the meeting.
Apple also has been planning a revamp of its iTunes music service by creating a Web-based version of it that could launch as soon as June, say people familiar with the matter. Tentatively called iTunes.com, the service would allow customers to buy music without going through the specialized iTunes program on computers and iPhones.
People familiar with Apple's plans say a central part of the new strategy is to populate as many Web sites as possible with "buy" buttons, integrating iTunes transactions into activities like listening to Internet radio and surfing review Web sites.
In November, Apple hired Tracy Augustine, a former executive at textbook publishers Cengage Learning Inc. and Pearson Education Inc., as the director of world-wide education. Ms. Augustine is responsible for "driving global strategy and revenue for the education online store for students," according to her LinkedIn description.
Ms. Augustine didn't respond to a request for comment.
February 1, 2010 12:45 PM
Anonymous said...
If Google Inc. shuts down its Chinese search engine, the biggest winner is likely to be Baidu Inc., the search leader here. But even if Google retreats, the Chinese company still would face big challenges, from developing innovative products to facing new competition by local rivals.
Baidu already is China's most popular Web site by traffic and it dominates the country's search market, with nearly 60% of total industry revenue. Google's share has grown in recent years but the U.S. company still gets only about a third of total revenue.
Baidu's share would certainly rise if Google closes its Chinese ...
February 1, 2010 12:51 PM
Anonymous said...
WHETHER OR NOT YOU AGREE WITH President Obama's new proposals to restrict the size and activities of America's big banks, it's hard to argue that he shouldn't have a role in the policymaking process. But when it comes to cutting Wall Street pay, he's barking up the wrong tree.
It's up to management and corporate boards to rein in compensation because it's in shareholders' interests to do so. Shareholders own these companies, not employees, although the firms have long operated as if employees' interests were paramount. Lower pay probably will mean higher profits and bigger capital cushions against potential losses.
February 1, 2010 12:55 PM
Anonymous said...
Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts will not endure unless Republicans clearly understand the meaning of "the machine" that he ran against and defeated.
Yes, it is about a general revulsion at government spending, what is sometimes called "the blob." But blobs are shapeless things, and in the days ahead we will see the Obama White House work hard to reshape the blob into a deficit hawk. Unless the facade is ripped away, the machine will survive.
The revolt against the machine began with voters' 2006 ouster of the Republican majority in Congress for making a mockery of fiscal rectitude. An angry electorate then swept Barack Obama into office. Now Mr. Obama is saying voters elected him on the same wave of anger that elected Scott Brown. Sorry, but Messrs. Obama and Brown are not surfing in the same political ocean.
Daniel Henninger discusses the political machine that Scott Brown ran against.
Podcast: Hear Daniel Henninger's audio version of Wonder Land. The central battle in our time is over political primacy. It is a competition between the public sector and the private sector over who defines the work and the institutions that make a nation thrive and grow.
In 1962, President John F. Kennedy planted the seeds that grew the modern Democratic Party. That year, JFK signed executive order 10988 allowing the unionization of the federal work force. This changed everything in the American political system. Kennedy's order swung open the door for the inexorable rise of a unionized public work force in many states and cities.
This in turn led to the fantastic growth in membership of the public employee unions—The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and the teachers' National Education Association.
They broke the public's bank. More than that, they entrenched a system of taking money from members' dues and spending it on political campaigns. Over time, this transformed the Democratic Party into a public-sector dependency.
February 1, 2010 12:58 PM
Anonymous said...
Daniel Henninger discusses what Scott Brown's victory means for Democrats.
They became different than the party of FDR, Truman, Meany and Reuther. That party was allied with the fading industrial unions, which in turn were tethered to a real world of profit and loss.
The states in the North and on the coasts turned blue because blue is the color of the public-sector unions. This tax-and-spend milieu became the training ground for their politicians.
Until the Obama exception, the only recent Democrats electable into the presidency had to be centrist Southerners little known to the country. Every post-Kennedy liberal who tried, failed, including Teddy.
What an irony it is that in the same week the Kennedy labor legacy hit the wall in Massachusetts, the NEA approved a $1 million donation from the union's contingency fund to the Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate. It is this Kennedy legacy, the public union tax and spend machine, that drove blue Massachusetts into revolt Tuesday.
He sent public budgets toward the cliff.
Yes, health care was ground zero, but Massachusetts—like New Jersey, like California, like New York—has been building toward this explosion for years.
According to a study done for the Massachusetts Institute for a New Commonwealth, spending in specific public categories there skyrocketed the past 20 years (1987 to 2007).
Public safety: up 139%; social services, 130%; education, 44%. And of course Medicaid Madness, up 163%, before MassCare kicked in more Medicaid obligations.
But here's the party's self-destroying kicker: Feeding the public unions' wage demands starved other government responsibilities. It ruined our ability to have a useful debate about any other public functions.
Massachusetts' spending fell for mental health, the environment, housing and higher education. The physical infrastructure in blue states is literally falling apart. But look at those public wage and pension-related outlays. Ever upward.
Enter the Obama administration, the first one born and raised inside this public bubble, with zero private-sector Cabinet members. Act one: a $787 billion stimulus bill, which they brag mainly saved state and local jobs. Then came the six-month odyssey for Obama's $1 trillion health-care bill, dripping with taxes. Independent voters felt like everything was being sucked into a public-sector vortex.
This is why New Jersey's Chris Christie won running on nothing. It's why in California Carly Fiorina is within three points of Sen. Barbara Boxer. It's why the party JFK enabled, "the machine," is hitting the wall.
February 1, 2010 12:59 PM
Anonymous said...
1. President Obama delivered the first state of the union address of his presidency, a 71-minute speech that ranked as the sixth longest in presidential history. (The famously long-winded Bill Clinton has four of the five longest speeches.) The White House posted its version of the highlights from the speech and you can read the whole thing for yourself; Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell delivered a solid if not spectacular Republican response that will likely cement his status as a rising star within the party. The gaffe of the night? That came from Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito who mouthed the words "not true" when the president condemned the recent Citizens United ruling. We posted our first thoughts on the speech last night. Here's a quick summary: 1) Values matter: From the start of the speech to its ends, the common thread was an appeal to the country's shared values of what it means to be an American. 2) Health care humility: Obama waited more than thirty minutes before raising the touchy topic of health care. But, when he did, he talked about it in a self-deprecating tone aimed at defusing some of the vitriol surrounding the issue: "By now it should be fairly obvious I didn't take on health care because it was good politics," Obama said in a line that drew chuckles in the chamber. 3) Blaming Bush: On at least three occasions, Obama referenced the previous administration to explain the problems left to him and the country. After rattling off a list of spending and tax cuts by former president George W. Bush, Obama exclaimed: "All of this is before I walked in the door."
2. In the midst of the state of the union madness came an absolutely fascinating national survey conducted by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Republican pollster Glen Bolger for National Public Radio. The entire poll is well worth checking out but since you're probably getting over your SOTU hangover -- is that a thing? -- here's five key data points from the survey: 1) Republicans lead on the generic ballot question -- which party's candidate would you vote for if the election were held today? -- 44 percent to 39 percent, an improvement from the statistical tie (43 percent R, 42 percent D) in a July 2009 NPR poll. (Check out Bolger's blog post on the generic ballot findings and what they mean.) 2) Nearly six in ten adults (58 percent) blame former president George W. Bush for the "current state of the economy" while just 33 percent blame President Obama. 3) A huge majority of those polled -- 70 percent -- said a "jobs bill" should be either the first or second priority of the administration moving forward. That number crushed a focus on a deficit reduction plan (49 percent) or on a financial regulation bill (34 percent). Interestingly, health care was not offered by the pollsters as an option for the administration to focus on moving forward. 4) The country is deeply divided over whether the change Obama is bringing is good or bad. Fifty percent call it "the right change" while 46 percent call it the "wrong change." 5) Speaking of divided, 49 percent approve of the job Obama is doing whle 48 percent disapprove. There is no such uncertainty of public opinion about Congress; 28 percent approve of how Congress is doing its job while 67 percent disapprove. ALSO READ: Greenberg's analysis of the numbers.
February 1, 2010 1:18 PM
Anonymous said...
3. Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) appears to be in genuine jeopardy of falling in next Tuesday's Democratic primary at the hands of state Treasurer Dan Hynes, a loss that would reinforce the anti-incumbent bent of the American electorate. A recent Chicago Tribune poll showed Quinn, who took over from disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), leading Hynes by just four points -- a rapid erosion for the incumbent in less than two months time. In a conference call with reporters Wednesday, Hynes campaign manager Mike Rendina claimed that "every minute we are gaining support across the state." Hynes pollster Jef Pollock argued that Quinn was simply unelectable in a general election and comparing him to New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) who lost his reelection bid after months (and months) of polling showed the incumbent in the low 40/high 30s in ballot tests. "Quinn is in a far worse situation than Jon Corzine," added Pollock. While a loss by Quinn would almost certainly become part of a broader national narrative for voters' rejection of their elected officials, the Illinois race has some unique traits that make it somewhat difficult to draw lessons from. First, there is the Blagojevich factor. Blagojevich's downfall has become the stuff of parody but it has left a lasting scar in the minds of Illinois voters that Quinn, despite being no friend of Blago, has struggled to overcome. Second, the accidental release of hundreds of prisoners by Quinn's Administration has handed Hynes a potent issue by which to paint the incumbent as out of touch. Still, a sitting governor -- even an appointed one -- is a big deal. And Hynes is now well within striking distance.
4. Republicans are falling all over themselves to challenge embattled Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in Arkansas with Rep. John Boozman (R) set to run and former University of Arkansas star Jim Lindsey apparently also looking at the contest. Boozman, who has held the 3rd district since 2001, is reportedly going to join the race later this week although he does not appear to be clearing the field -- or at least not yet -- of serious challengers as state Sen. Gilbert Baker has said he will not drop out no matter who gets in. While Lincoln has had to beat back retirement rumors since Democrats lost the Massachusetts special election race last week, the more crowded the field gets, the better the chances that Lincoln could survive if the GOP badly fractures itself in the May 18 primary.
5. Republicans are falling all over themselves to challenge embattled Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in Arkansas with Rep. John Boozman (R) set to run and former University of Arkansas star Jim Lindsey apparently also looking at the contest. Boozman, who has held the 3rd district since 2001, is reportedly going to join the race later this week although he does not appear to be clearing the field -- or at least not yet -- of serious challengers as state Sen. Gilbert Baker has said he will not drop out no matter who gets in. While Lincoln has had to beat back retirement rumors since Democrats lost the Massachusetts special election race last week, the more crowded the field gets, the better the chances that Lincoln could survive if the GOP badly fractures itself in the May 18 primary.
February 1, 2010 1:18 PM
Anonymous said...
Nicolas Cage is the latest example of the notion that it's not what you make that matters, but how you make do with what you have. (That's a saying from my grandmother, Big Mama, who never made more than $13,000 a year, yet knew how to manage her money.)
The Oscar-winning actor's Las Vegas mansion was recently foreclosed on and sold for nearly $5 million, reports the Associated Press. Cage has said his former business manager gave him bad advice and that allegedly led to his financial mess.
So, um, did the man advise him not to pay his mortgage? Did he have his mortgage payments invested? I understand some celebrities are busy acting or singing or playing ball, but just like the rest of us working folks, they have to take care of their own business. Even when you hire someone to help you with your money, you have to do your homework. You have to check up on what the adviser is doing.
February 1, 2010 1:22 PM
Anonymous said...
Do you think it's possible to raise a level-headed, unspoiled child when you give him a car worth more than what the average American pays for his or her home? (The average home price, by the way, was $290,600 in Dec. 2009, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.)
In her Celebritology blog, the Post's Liz Kelly reports that Sean "Diddy" Combs gave his 16-year-old son a $360,000 Maybach, a luxury sedan. Oh, and the kid doesn't even have a driver's license.
I have never heard of that model of car and even if I had it like that, I wouldn't give it like that. Would you? Let's talk celebrity cash. If you were loaded like Diddy, would you give your child a sweet sixteen party and car collectively worth what several households make in one year?
February 1, 2010 1:23 PM
Anonymous said...
Q: I've completed the budget template from "The Power to Prosper" and realize that I'm spending over my means by about $200 a month. I don't use my charge card. What am I doing wrong? Where would you suggest the first place for me to cut back should be?
A: Without looking at your budget and talking to you, I can't say what you should cut out of your budget. That's a very personal thing. It all depends on what you value. But good for you to complete a budget and realize you are living above your means. That's one of the first steps toward getting your financial life together.
Try this. Keep a spending journal for 30 days. Write down every single penny you spend, including when you pay your rent or mortgage, car payment, etc. That may help you see where you are overspending. Often it's the little expenses that can sink you. Additionally, you might try the envelope money management system. Read more about it in a column I wrote recently, Envelopes can help spendthrifts.
Q: What are your views on Roth 401k's? I'm considering allocating a portion of my contributions to this option as I am young and in a lower tax bracket than I anticipate being at in retirement.
A: I'm a fan of the Roth IRA if you qualify. And I really like the Roth 401(k) because there are no income bars you have to jump over. Here's how a Roth works. Withdrawals from a Roth are tax-free, including earnings, if you take them after more than five years and after you reach age 59 ½.
In a traditional 401(k) plan, you invest with pretax dollars which reduces your taxable income and the taxes you pay that year. You pay taxes when you withdraw the money at retirement.
With a Roth 401(k) and a Roth IRA, you pay taxes on the money before you invest. When you withdraw your funds, including any earnings, it is not taxed.
So the question is: do you want to pay taxes on your money now, or when you retire?
Additionally, with a traditional Roth IRA, there are income limits, meaning if you make over a certain amount you can't contribute to a Roth. However, that's not the case with a Roth 401 (k), which makes it good choice for highly paid employees. If you aren't paying high taxes now, a Roth is a good choice.
February 1, 2010 1:24 PM
Anonymous said...
Buying Power
"Empowerment experiment." That's what John and Maggie Anderson call their quest to only patronize African American owned businesses last year. The controversial adventure allowed the Oak Park, Ill. couple to take a closer look at the state of black owned establishments.
"There was a feeling that now we have really created a vehicle to force ourselves to look into the mirror and address some of the issues we don't want to talk about," said John Anderson.
African Americans have nearly $850 billion in spending power, but very little of that money circulates through "underserved" communities, reports Ted Gregory of the Chicago Tribune in Adding up family's year buying black.
While some embraced the experiment, others deemed it as an exercise of racism, an idea that the Andersons reject. "This is really about African Americans taking ownership of a problem," John said.
February 1, 2010 1:24 PM
Anonymous said...
In the waning days of 2009, many advisors and market analysts, when asked for their thoughts about the new year, opted to emphasize the risks. What if the Fed began raising interest rates? Did the deteriorating job market signal a double-dip recession on the horizon? Or would the Fed's willingness to keep lending rates so low, for so long, spark inflation as an economic recovery gathered momentum?
Amidst all the angst, it's reassuring to note that at least one of those clouds-the slumping U.S. dollar-may have a silver lining in 2010, in the shape of hefty returns from investing in non-U.S. markets and, in particular, from increasing allocations to emerging markets. True, Asian markets were hard-hit by the credit crunch of 2008, and few countries have been immune to the recession that followed. Nations from Iceland to Dubai and Greece have suffered major economic blows that make them areas to avoid. But that leaves investors with a lot of opportunities to diversify their holdings and reduce the risk associated with their portfolios, while also capturing some upside potential if the dollar continues its decline against other major currencies.
Take a look at Brazil. In 2009, its Bovespa (Ibovespa)index rallied 82.7%; the dollar's plunge against the Brazilian real last year turned that into a gain of about 145% in dollar terms.
Not every non-dollar investment will produce such dramatic gains. But veteran investors argue that this is the time to go global, with many overseas economies offering higher economic growth rates over the long term, with potential for extra upside if market guru Bill Gross and his Pimco colleagues prove correct in their predictions that the "new normal" means a falling dollar.
February 1, 2010 1:26 PM
Anonymous said...
BEYOND OUR BORDERS
When it comes to global diversification, most advisors already have a lot of ground to make up compared with their European counterparts. "We're more parochial in our investment views than anyone in the world," argues Erik Davidson, managing director of investments for Western states at the private bank of Wells Fargo. "I have to remind our clients that 97% of the world's population, 75% of its economic production and two-thirds of the stock market capitalization is now outside our borders. And we should be following those trends in our portfolios."
Some financial advisors are already taking advantage of the long-term opportunity. Rob Lutts, president and chief investment officer of Cabot Money Management in Salem, Mass., has already allocated about 40% of the aggressive growth stock portfolios he manages for high-net-worth clients to emerging markets. "Keeping a high allocation to global markets, particularly emerging markets, gives you the potential for moderate returns in local currency to become bigger when they're translated into dollars. That's the gravy. The meat? That these are going to continue to be some of the highest growth markets around."
In 2009, many advisors kept their eyes closer to home. That was both logical and necessary: When the recovery got under way, the simplest way to benefit was to "go long" U.S. stocks and bonds; the best-performing equity mutual funds of the year were leveraged index funds tied to the Nasdaq 100, which soared as the markets staged a recovery. But with that low-hanging fruit long plucked, advisors like Lutts say the best place to seek out future gains is "beyond our own borders."
The reasons are many. While the U.S. economic recovery could be slow and growth is never likely to exceed a few percentage points a year, the emerging markets-and even some developed markets-may post more rapid growth rates, whether because they're rapidly developing economies (Brazil, China and India) or because they will benefit from high commodity prices in years to come (Russia and others). "There are reasons to doubt the viability of the dollar as the world's reserve currency over the long run," suggests Alexander Kozhemiakin, director of emerging-markets strategies at Standish, a subsidiary of BNY Mellon.
While the dollar is still the safe haven of choice in times of turbulence, the further the crisis recedes into the past, the more likely it is that the dollar's role will diminish as well, Kozhemiakin believes. That's a view shared by pundits like Warren Buffett and Gross, who believe the dollar's decline may be a longer-term phenomenon as the U.S. government's need to finance its burgeoning deficit, coupled with the Fed's determination to avoid a double-dip recession by keeping interest rates low, make owning dollar-denominated assets less appealing for investors.
February 1, 2010 1:27 PM
Anonymous said...
BEYOND OUR BORDERS
When it comes to global diversification, most advisors already have a lot of ground to make up compared with their European counterparts. "We're more parochial in our investment views than anyone in the world," argues Erik Davidson, managing director of investments for Western states at the private bank of Wells Fargo. "I have to remind our clients that 97% of the world's population, 75% of its economic production and two-thirds of the stock market capitalization is now outside our borders. And we should be following those trends in our portfolios."
Some financial advisors are already taking advantage of the long-term opportunity. Rob Lutts, president and chief investment officer of Cabot Money Management in Salem, Mass., has already allocated about 40% of the aggressive growth stock portfolios he manages for high-net-worth clients to emerging markets. "Keeping a high allocation to global markets, particularly emerging markets, gives you the potential for moderate returns in local currency to become bigger when they're translated into dollars. That's the gravy. The meat? That these are going to continue to be some of the highest growth markets around."
In 2009, many advisors kept their eyes closer to home. That was both logical and necessary: When the recovery got under way, the simplest way to benefit was to "go long" U.S. stocks and bonds; the best-performing equity mutual funds of the year were leveraged index funds tied to the Nasdaq 100, which soared as the markets staged a recovery. But with that low-hanging fruit long plucked, advisors like Lutts say the best place to seek out future gains is "beyond our own borders."
The reasons are many. While the U.S. economic recovery could be slow and growth is never likely to exceed a few percentage points a year, the emerging markets-and even some developed markets-may post more rapid growth rates, whether because they're rapidly developing economies (Brazil, China and India) or because they will benefit from high commodity prices in years to come (Russia and others). "There are reasons to doubt the viability of the dollar as the world's reserve currency over the long run," suggests Alexander Kozhemiakin, director of emerging-markets strategies at Standish, a subsidiary of BNY Mellon.
While the dollar is still the safe haven of choice in times of turbulence, the further the crisis recedes into the past, the more likely it is that the dollar's role will diminish as well, Kozhemiakin believes. That's a view shared by pundits like Warren Buffett and Gross, who believe the dollar's decline may be a longer-term phenomenon as the U.S. government's need to finance its burgeoning deficit, coupled with the Fed's determination to avoid a double-dip recession by keeping interest rates low, make owning dollar-denominated assets less appealing for investors.
February 1, 2010 1:27 PM
Anonymous said...
DIVERSIFY, BUT CAREFULLY
For advisors hoping to transform both the reality of higher growth rates outside the United States and the possibility of a declining greenback into higher returns for clients, the challenge is figuring out how to accomplish it. The answer-be diversified, but be very picky-may be the only way to go, say Kozhemiakin and Don Gervais, global head of fundamental equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Placing a big bet on any single high-growth region is foolish. Sure, China's stock market soared about 300% in two years, from 2005 until 2007. But what goes up can come down-are your clients prepared to put an outsize portion of their portfolios in a market that can move 7% or 8% in a day?
"We spent much of 2009 underweight the dollar and overweight Asia, but not overweight a single country or market," says Michael Ho, CIO at Mellon Capital Management. While China's enormous growing middle class may be alluring for stock market investors, Ho is just as interested in owning the yen (but not Japanese stocks or bonds, whose value may be hurt by that country's renewed deflationary pressures).
Michael Church, president of Addison Capital, a Yardley, Pa.-based advisory firm, is seeking out ways to profit from what he expects to be a dollar that will continue to diminish in value. "The strategy can be as simple as investing overseas, especially in foreign sovereign debt issued by countries that have a big interest-rate differential like Australia, Canada and Norway."
February 1, 2010 1:28 PM
Anonymous said...
The 2008 to 2009 market downturn was the most tumultuous period in U.S. financial history since the Great Depression. It was also a wake-up call for financial advisors, who faced declining revenue and eroding profits as they worked longer and harder to meet the demands of those challenging days. And the challenges may not be behind them. Lesson learned: Nothing is static. One must always be prepared for change.
Many advisors have responded to these times by looking closely at how their businesses are run, where expenses are going, how teams can be more effective, what operational efficiencies can be gained and what changes to business practices must be made to ensure sustainability and long-term success. They are coming to recognize, more than ever, that their own business success is driven by the same principles espoused to clients: establishing clear goals, analyzing options, making ongoing performance assessments and periodic adjustments-all to be executed with discipline to promote a positive long-term outcome.
The Quantuvis Best Practices: Business Performance Study 2009, sponsored by Genworth Financial, provides the relevant empirical benchmarks advisors are looking for. The results will be published in Financial Planning as a four-part series. The study provides a broad view of business performance that will help advisors effectively navigate the days ahead. As the study series continues, we expect a rich pool of information across business disciplines.
February 1, 2010 1:29 PM
Anonymous said...
A Broader View
Our inaugural study had 1,006 participants, representing early, emerging and mature firms across all business, affiliation and practice models. This is the first study to separate silo-style practices from ensembles and report on each type, based on our experience that the strategy, cost structures and goals of these firms vary, and therefore warrant individual review. Business models represented included investment advisory, investment management, insurance, financial planning, insurance, and wealth management. An equally diverse participant mix is reflected in the affiliation models, with participants across: Independent broker-dealer (IBD)-only, IBD with insurance, IBD with planning RIA, primarily RIA, RIA, regional brokerage firm, national brokerage firm and bank/trust company.
February 1, 2010 1:30 PM
Anonymous said...
A New Class of Top Performers: 1QA
One of the goals of this study was to provide a performance comparison relevant to advisors across every practice, service and affiliation model. With this in mind, we created a new category of business performance: 1QA. This stands for first-quartile advisors or the top quartile of advisors based on total owner income (comprising owner compensation, bonuses and benefits, plus operating profits). Counting both compensation and profits in this way accounts for the disparities in the methods advisors use to divide their income between labor compensation and profit distributions.
By definition, of course, one would expect 1QAs to outperform non-1QAs (the remaining 75% of the population), but what is striking is the size of the performance gap. As noted in Median Performance by Practice Model, at left, performance far exceeds that of their peers. For instance, 1QA revenue, income and profits significantly outpace those of non-1QAs, with 1QAs showing 5.1 times greater revenue, 5.1 times greater operating profits and 4.8 times more owner(s) income. Even accounting for multiple owners in silos and ensembles, with a median of two owners and three advisors, 1QAs' median income per owner of $417,000 is still nearly four times greater than non-1QAs' income per owner of $113,000.
A breakdown of performance ratios between 1QA firms and non-1QA firms, as shown in the charts on page 60-Median Expenses, Operating Profit and Fee-Based Assets Per Client-further highlights the magnitude of this performance gap, which is nearly a chasm.
This led us to explore the reasons for such enhanced performance. Among our findings was that 1QAs spent significantly more per client than non-1QAs: $3,181 versus $1,000. This suggests that those firms that invest in staff and infrastructure are better equipped to grow and drive increased revenue, income and profits.
February 1, 2010 1:31 PM
Anonymous said...
A closer look at the role of the client base of 1QA firms provides further insight.
As noted in Service Model, shown at left. as firms move into the top quartile, they tend to shift their practices into wealth management. The broader range of services they provide result in the higher expense per client-the business development, service offering and staffing model required to support a wealth management practice is deeper and, of course, pricier. Part two in the study series, which will be released in spring 2010, will report on correlations between business development practices and enhanced business performance.
One question on everyone's mind is just how bad was 2008 for various firms, given the market declines? Surprisingly, not as bad as you might think-on paper at least. Across all participants, median revenue grew 3.8% in 2008. Only 36% of firms lost revenue, while 64% saw positive revenue growth. Median owner income rose 1.8% from 2007 to 2008, and median operating profits increased 6.5%.
How is it that firms saw gains, nominal though they may be, in the year of the most brutal market crash since the Great Depression? The saving grace of this situation was timing. Strong financial performance in the first three quarters of 2008 helped mitigate overall calendar-year performance. Consider further that the second half of the decline was contained to the first quarter of 2009, followed by an impressive recovery. Had the six-month period of decline taken place in one calendar year, financial statements would have fared much, much worse.
Nonetheless, all affiliation models experienced an overall decline in assets under management performance in 2008, providing a more realistic view of the dismal landscape they were dealing with. This in turn affected fee-based billings and revenue.
At the same time, many practices took on new clients. Given the bill-in-arrears style of most advisors, the impact new clients had on AUM was faster to show up in most firms than was their impact on revenue. While 2008 showed modest gains compared to prior years double-digit growth averages, the real story here is that, given the timing, most advisors did not feel the paper gains of 2008 in their pocketbooks
February 1, 2010 1:31 PM
Anonymous said...
As the financial meltdown drained investors' assets a year ago, many took refuge in the booming bond market in order to bolster their retirement portfolios. But with observers' outlook for fixed income this year ranging from guarded to dismal, retirees and pre-retirees are likely to find themselves wading back into equities.
Common sense would dictate seeking out the beaten-down asset, which some might still think is domestic equities. Yet, even though stocks are generally expected to outperform bonds this year, another economic dip could disrupt expectations for modest gains in 2010. As a result, many advisors appear to be avoiding plain vanilla-and instead are seeking out international equities and other nontraditional assets that don't correlate to the S&P.
Even as advisors seek out growth opportunities for their clients, however, risk management obviously remains a priority. With one eye on long-term growth and the other on protecting a client's retirement assets, big losses are much more disastrous than sizable gains are beneficial.
With more questions than answers about where the economy and markets are headed in 2010, advisors know they are going to have to be nimble this year. "We do think there are opportunities for returns in 2010, but [earning them] will require very good securities selection and pretty active management instead of just saying that we're back to the days of 60/40 and I can sleep well at night," says Tim Knepp, chief investment officer for Genworth Financial.
February 1, 2010 1:32 PM
Anonymous said...
STILL STOCKING UP?
Of course, with the S&P 500's dramatic rally last year, investors didn't have to look very far for growth in 2009. J. Graydon Coghlan, president and chief executive officer of Coghlan Financial Group in San Diego, says his clients' gains averaged around 24% or 25% for 2009. "That isn't out of the ordinary," he says. "It wasn't as if we were completely separated from where everyone should be. The S&P was up in that range, so it's not as if we were creating magic."
Coghlan expects technology stocks to be a leading sector this year. He also expects to see the equity market continue to perform, driven by improved earnings. Thus far, many large companies have been underestimating their expected earnings so that they can beat them. The asset allocation Coghlan is using right now is about 15% in cash, close to 12% international equities, 35% in bonds and the balance (38%) in domestic stocks.
Genworth, meanwhile, has had an emphasis on yield and income orientation as opposed to just relying on capital gains, Knepp says. His investment team doesn't want to be completely dependent on earnings growth or expansion of multiples, which makes it guarded on equities. Within equities, however, yield is a good emphasis for retirees. Companies that have strong cash flows, pricing power and good balance sheets-such as healthcare, consumer staples and some tech companies-can support a dividend.
But Knepp is also concerned about some vulnerability on the downside with the S&P because so much of the rally has been supported by liquidity in one form or another from the federal government. One factor that might help the S&P's earnings going forward, Knepp adds, is that over time the components of the index are getting more of their sales and profits from outside the U.S.
Nevertheless, with the Treasury and Fed expected to back off their support, advisors and their clients are going to find out how much of this market rally was stimulus-driven. Jeffrey Phillips, chief investment officer of Rehmann Financial, a financial planning firm in Saginaw, Mich., believes the valuations have priced in the expected impact of the economic stimulus, but without a sustainable job recovery he is concerned that the domestic market will move sideways or even negatively.
"There is so much government involvement right now, which makes this business a lot more difficult than it was three or four years ago," he says.
Rick Pitcairn, chief investment officer for Pitcairn, a multifamily office in Jenkintown, Pa., acknowledges that much of the recovery is stimulus-led, "so the question marks aren't completely removed. We aren't in this state of nirvana." He still believes the data clearly shows we are in an early-stage recovery. "How it winds itself out will really revolve around Fed policy and whether or not and to what degree inflation takes hold," he says.
February 1, 2010 1:34 PM
Anonymous said...
DOWNSIDE PROTECTION
Advisors who spoke to Financial Planning for this article are focusing on long-term growth for their clients' retirement portfolios, as they should be. What they're not doing is trying to score big hits, to make back money their clients may have lost in the downturn. The marketplace is too often led by emotion, Pitcairn says. He recently heard from an equity analyst whose research found that despite the strong returns we saw in 2009, the typical individual investor really didn't participate in the rally.
"People put too much money in cash and left it there," Pitcairn says. "It's either a sick cycle of fear, like it was in 2008, or a cycle of greed like it was in 1999. Part of the investment policy process is to wash out that emotion-led decision-making and to move toward an understanding of one's investment goals-and looking to capitalize on a short-term market trend."
Pitcairn released a set of guidelines in December called Seven Principles for Managing Your Assets in a Maybe-Recovery. One such guideline: that the best time for an investor to diversify may be when some of the assets in the portfolio have lost value.
"If you're led by emotions, you were very loath in March to say you wanted equities-because nobody wanted equities then," Pitcairn says. He strips emotion from the decision-making process, he explains, by following a long-term investment policy.
Even with such a policy, Phillips says, many of his clients remain hesitant to put their sidelined cash to work. "But at the same time, they're getting an itchy finger because they can't get anything on the fixed-income side," he says.
February 1, 2010 1:34 PM
Anonymous said...
In their quest to move upmarket and serve wealthier clients, more advisors are interested in pursuing the ultra-affluent-those investors and families with investable assets of at least $30 million. Should you join them?
At the end of 2008, there were approximately 774,000 ultra-affluent individuals worldwide, according to the 2009 World Wealth Report by CapGemini. Now, there's no doubt that those ultra-affluent families can generate a lot of income. Given the ever-increasing level of financial complexity that comes with immense wealth, there is now more demand than ever before for advisors who can ably serve the ultra-affluent. What's more, the bear market prompted some advisors to look for a client base that is largely impervious to big economic shifts and volatile market cycles, and they believe that the ultra-affluent fits the bill.
But if you're among those advisors, be warned: Working with this select group of clients can be extremely challenging in terms of both effective client service and intelligent business management. If you're trying to pursue this market, or you're just curious about it, it's helpful to examine its key characteristics and see how you must structure and run your practice to decide if it's a path you should consider.
February 1, 2010 1:35 PM
Anonymous said...
FIVE KEYS
There are five core characteristics that the ultra-affluent tend to have in common when understanding how they relate to and use their sizable wealth. These five characteristics provide the framework for how advisors need to approach and work with the ultra-affluent.
* Complexity is the first and most significant characteristic defining this group. Tremendous wealth brings complications for many parts of their financial and personal lives. Even before you consider working with them, you should first comprehend the kind of complexity you would need to manage. Consider that an ultra-affluent family will probably consist of a patriarch, a matriarch and perhaps their two adult children. The adult children may each have several children, some of them adults. With these three generations, and a fourth soon on the way, you'll be confronted with planning not just 10 to 20 years out, as you're accustomed to now, but 100 to 200 years out.
Also consider the various entities that many ultra-affluent families control-professional corporations that support the family, limited liability companies, limited partnerships, various separate trusts and maybe even family foundations. You must understand each of these different entities from tax, compliance, planning, investment advisory, estate planning and gift perspectives. In addition, there's bill paying, accounting and expense management for each of these entities. Plus, various family members probably have different sets of personal, education funding, tax planning, charity and retirement goals that require detailed cash flow and investment management from a multigenerational wealth-transfer perspective.
And don't forget emotional complexity. The patriarch and matriarch of the family might each have different types of relationships with each of their children. The siblings each have unique interpersonal relationships with one another, with their children and with the children of their siblings. All of these various emotions and relationships come into play when managing the finances and dealing with people both within and outside of the family.
Great wealth raises the level of complexity in family and personal relationships, tending to magnify both eccentricities and animosities. Indeed, "Too Rich to Worry? Not in This Downturn," an article in the New York Times on Oct. 2, 2009, argued that the extremely wealthy have become particularly concerned about how the various people within their family units spend, save and invest the family money.
* Control. A major focus for many ultra-affluent investors is maintaining control over their money and every other significant situation in their lives. Because they see their professional advisors as the key to exerting this control, they typically have many advisors-ranging from an attorney and accountant to insurance professionals and investment advisors.
* Connections. Because contact with the right people is essential for success in both their personal and business lives, the ultra-affluent prize and protect their connections. In general, they have access to substantial numbers of influential people and have influence over those people.
* Capital. The ultra-affluent see capital not as money per se, but as the ability to deploy resources to make things happen-in other words, a means and not an end. For this reason, they are often more concerned with preserving their wealth (and thus their ability to accomplish big things) than they are with growing it.
* Charity. The tax incentives for philanthropic actions, plus the authentic charitable desire of many ultra-affluent Americans combine to make charitable gifting important in the lives of this group.
February 1, 2010 1:36 PM
Anonymous said...
ALL IN THE FAMILY OFFICE
What the ultra-affluent most want and need are answers to their complicated challenges-real solutions backed by expertise and world-class service. They expect their advisors to be highly qualified to address their issues. So to succeed in this market, you must set up your practice to demonstrate high quality at every point of client contact-and you must do so profitably.
Broadly speaking, there is one business model currently in use by advisory firms that serves ultra-affluent individuals: the family office. This organization is dedicated to meeting the entire range of its clients' financial and personal needs. A family office typically has an in-house staff to provide its core services of investment management and administrative services (such as recordkeeping, aggregated statements and accounting). All other services are usually outsourced to external specialists.
Operating a family office can be highly profitable, but only if the business is managed in specific ways. For example, you must minimize overhead expenses. If you try to build a complete in-house team of experts, your costs will be difficult to recoup. Instead, outsource the majority of work to qualified experts.
Create an effective network of experts. Your ability to bring together and manage a group of outside professionals who will work together is critical to your success. Successful advisors in family offices understand that they can't do it all themselves. While they may manage key items in-house (such as cash flow and investments, and the structures and relationships of the various entities and trusts), they outsource expertise in most other areas to specialists. They make it their business to know the experts in every field related to the management of ultra-affluent family affairs.
February 1, 2010 1:36 PM
Anonymous said...
Over my roughly 300-year career observing the financial services world, I've discovered that the very best advice about succeeding in this business comes from people who have worked closely with hundreds of advisory firms. I'm going to share the insights of two of them here.
I'll start with Tracy Beckes, who has emerged as the business coach who seems most consistently to foster impressive life changes and positive results from planning practitioners. Beckes has an MBA from the University of Oregon and once co-led the coach training program at the prestigious Hendricks Institute in Ojai, Calif. I recently interviewed her for my newsletter, and she offered her insights on what she calls The Essential Formula for creating a successful financial planning practice.
The Essential Formula emerged from Beckes' own coaching experience. As she looked through the case studies from her financial planning clients, Beckes found a pattern that most advisors-who are deeply engaged in their own practices and familiar with only their own situations-couldn't possibly perceive. "I sat down with everything I knew about the most successful advisors I'd worked with, and all the things that started to happen as they began to achieve their business and personal goals," she says. "In every case, they would totally transform the practice management side of the equation in favor of the advisor, all in very similar ways."
February 1, 2010 1:37 PM
Anonymous said...
FINDING YOUR NICHE
The Essential Formula is written up in detail in my newsletter, and also in The Coaching Report, which you can get for free from my website. But the quick version is that it starts with your selecting a client base that you personally resonate with, whether it be oral surgeons or people who fix the wires for the phone company, and-as quickly as possible-begin to specialize. If you can manage to do this, it opens up a whole lot of interlocking efficiencies in every corner of your practice.
Suddenly, you're able to train yourself to serve a small, distinct subset of the human population, and immerse yourself in the marketing issues of, say, your horse trainers or golf pros, the pension plan provisions for the hospital administrators down the street, or the business challenges that your swimming pool and spa servicing clients face-more completely than any other advisor. Your conversations with clients become effortless and rich.
This also allows you to get the best of all practice management worlds: You can create a client experience that is highly customized to the very specific needs of airline pilots, owners of dry cleaners or senior executives with a large local firm, but offer, essentially, the same services in a similar way to all of them. Your staff knows exactly what to do with these people, and you know exactly where to find them, how to market to their most pressing concerns, and how to get them talking to one another about you. The more you get to know these people, the more you can envision a dream service package for them. That means superior service, more value for the same work (and price), and more referrals within their network of acquaintances.
Beckes says that most advisory firms are built on a very different, inefficient foundation of outlier clients-that is, a bunch of people you picked up along the way who have little in common. This diffuses your focus. Most advisory firms experience a lot of confusion about who gets what service and who wants what to happen (and when), leading to a lot of unproductive catch-up time, weak job descriptions, difficulties in hiring and evaluating staff, insurmountable marketing challenges and crushing workloads when the markets go south and everybody panics.
Developing that standardized, customized client experience may be the most important part of The Essential Formula because it lets you break down, step by step, what has to be done with each client. You can then train each member of your staff to play a specific role in the process, giving you more personal capacity. "Capacity is so valuable that it requires a lot of work to create," Beckes says. "In the final analysis, your only inflexible resource is your time."
February 1, 2010 1:38 PM
Anonymous said...
MAKING CHANGES HAPPEN
Holding that thought, let's move to another business consultant: Spenser Segal, president and founder of ActiFi. After offering practice management advice to thousands of planning firms, Segal has found that most advisors are not good at translating the things they want to happen in their firm into highly specific action steps. Asking you to build efficiency into your practice is a little like asking you to build your own automobile, he says. You know what you want and generally how you want it to work. But how do you acquire the parts and assemble it?
Let's say you want to grow your firm. ActiFi has a consulting software model called RoadMap, which takes that goal and forces you to make it incrementally more specific. Do you want to grow profits? Top-line assets under management? Number of clients? Or do you want to grow your capacity by taking on new employees?
Let's say you select "profits." The software takes you to a variety of options related to increasing revenue and reducing expenses, and each of those options leads to specific action steps. Suppose you want to increase assets under management from existing clients. Click on that tab and the screen invites you to quantify your goal. Let's say you select $20 million in new assets. By when? You pick a date; say, next December 31.
"Notice," Segal says, "that you have moved, in a matter of minutes, from this very nebulous idea of 'growth' to a very specific goal of increasing assets under management by $20 million, to be achieved by deepening the relationships you have with existing clients, and you want it to happen by the end of the year."
February 1, 2010 1:38 PM
Anonymous said...
In the 1930s it occurred to a bunchof researchers that the stars and planets should have been pulled apart by their own mass. Since gravity alone couldn't keep the galaxies in place, they concluded an invisible substance called "cosmic glue" must be keeping them together. When the atom was split in the 1940s, the cosmic glue was identified as the "strong force," which keeps neutrons and protons happy together.
I've been thinking quite a bit about our regulatory environment. I am fairly certain that by the end of 2010, we financial advisors will have new guidelines for practicing our craft, which should serve as our own version of cosmic glue. The issues involve defining who is a fiduciary, when someone is acting in a fiduciary role and even the definition of fiduciary care itself.
A YOUNG PROFESSION
One of the reasons that this profession is so hard to define is that we're still in the nascent stages of development. Last year we celebrated the 40th birthday of the advent of financial planning. Forty years is nothing compared with the accounting and medical professions. And, because we've all come from different disciplines, how we practice differs greatly. Although we share a standardized process for financial planning, there is very little beyond the Investment Adviser's Act of 1940 that specifically directs us regarding how to conduct our businesses and our relationships with clients. We can call ourselves anything we want-financial advisor, financial planner, investment advisor, investment counselor, wealth manager.
When I started in this business, I called myself a financial planner. In 1984, Forbes magazine put a monkey in a three-piece suit on its front cover, with the tag line, "Anybody can call themselves a financial planner." It didn't take more than 30 seconds for me to find other ways to refer to my professional activities. I landed on the term "wealth manager" because my partner began using the phrase to describe how we gave institutional-level advice and support to our private clients. The way we describe ourselves, and the manner in which we manage our practices vary widely. We use different products and perform different services. We charge differently.
In my early days I had a Series 7 license. One day I was interviewed by a financial reporter who told me that her newspaper didn't want her to use commissioned advisors as sources because they didn't want to give the impression that they endorsed any products. She asked me if I knew any fee-only planners; I didn't. She didn't either. That's when I decided that, if the press was going to pave my way, I'd be an idiot not to be a fee-only planner. I am no more ethical than I was, but I find it easier to be treated professionally because of it. This is another aspect of our practices that seems to divide our profession.
Mark Twain said, "Man is the only animal that has the True Religion-several of them." Whatever our background and orientation toward our industry, we seem to think that individually, we have the only true way of practicing. And because our bad apples are so visible in the press, we wag our fingers and declare we've got the best business model, the best method of compensation, and the best client service and support.
February 1, 2010 1:40 PM
Anonymous said...
THE FIDUCIARY FUNCTION
The fiduciary issue is just one more thing that divides us. Let's face it: The term fiduciary is a legal term, with very specific legal interpretations, which describes an ethical relationship of trust and confidence. Some advisors believe using the term simply opens us up to potential lawsuits. The suitability standard has served us well since 1934, they say, and we should leave it alone.
Tiburon's CEO Summit late last year featured a panel that consisted of three top litigation attorneys. These guys are in the business of suing advisors. They explained how advisors need to think about their relationships and activities with clients. They discussed the concept of "functional" fiduciary, which, in its simplest terms, means if it walks like a duck and looks like a duck, it's a duck. Just because we might not accept fiduciary responsibility in our relationships, does not mean we evade it.
A few years ago an SEC regulator, speaking at an industry event, described the components of fiduciary duty. The FPA adopted a version of this definition as its Standards of Care and outlines. In plain English, the fiduciary role in a financial planning engagement:
• Put the client's best interests first;
• Act with due care and in utmost good faith;
• Do not mislead clients;
• Provide full and fair disclosure of all material facts; and
• Disclose and fairly manage all material conflicts of interest.
Similarly, the Committee for the Fiduciary Standard, a group of highly respected industry leaders, has proposed five core principles that its feels should be key to any new legislation or rulemaking. These are:
• Put the client's best interest first;
• Act with prudence; that is, with the skill, care, diligence and good judgment of a professional;
• Do not mislead clients; provide conspicuous, full and fair disclosure of all important facts;
• Avoid conflicts of interest; and
• Fully disclose and fairly manage, in the client's favor, unavoidable conflicts.
While there are subtle differences between the two, the most glaring similarity to me is the absence of the word fiduciary. When we remove the F word, what's left, I maintain, is the essence of who we are as practitioners.
PRINCIPLES COUNT
Look at these statements. Which could you not support? Which do not in some way reflect the relationship you have with your clients, whether it's formally declared or functionally performed?
I urge you to disregard the distractions of a business model, compensation or other practice details, and support and adopt the principles of these statements, whichever version you choose. They make up the invisible substance that keeps us together. These Standards of Care are our cosmic glue.
February 1, 2010 1:41 PM
Anonymous said...
El número de hipotecas inversas suscritas en 2009 creció un 8%, hasta alcanzar las 2.700, y el importe medio fue de 350.000 euros, según un informe de Optima Mayores, que prevé que 2010 sea el año del "despegue definitivo" de este tipo de productos si finalmente se da la promulgación del reglamento que determine las condiciones, forma y requisitos con que ha de prestarse el asesoramiento a este producto.
Durante 2009, la consultora asesoró a más de 3.000 clientes, fundamentalmente mujeres con una edad de entre los 75-76 años que precisaban complementar sus ingresos mensuales con mayor necesidad.
El informe resalta que el pasado año fue bueno ya que la crisis financiera e inmobiliaria le afectó "positivamente", sumándose a estos dos efectos la necesidad de complementar las bajas pensiones por jubilación y viudedad.
En este sentido, también resalta que la sociedad española tiene una necesidad que la hipoteca inversa está llamada a cubrir, para lo que es necesario que los potenciales interesados tengan acceso a la información necesaria para tomar la decisión más acertada.
Actualmente, existen 20 entidades en España que ofrecen hipotecas inversas pero hay un número muy limitado que realmente respaldan el producto desde sus departamentos de riesgo mediante procedimientos concretos de tramitación.
BBK y Catalana Occidente lideraron el ránking de comercialización de las hipotecas inversa pero durante el año desaparecieron del mercado las ofertas de Caja Duero y Caja Navarra, que ocuparon puestos relevantes durante 2008, según explicó la consultora.
Por áreas geográficas, Madrid fue la región con mayor demanda durante el pasado ejercicio, ya que un 51% de los potenciales clientes se mostraron dispuestos a contratar este tipo de productos.
La hipoteca inversa es un producto financiero destinado fundamentalmente a personas mayores y ofrece al propietario de una vivienda la posibilidad de obtener dinero por ella sin venderla. Si el propietario fallece, los herederos podrán asumir el crédito o bien vender la vivienda para devolver al banco las cantidades anticipadas.
February 1, 2010 1:44 PM
54 comments:
Al parecer podríamos calificar de "ignorantes al 98% de los periodistas a nível Mundial pues insisten en llamar Presidente al dictador Raúl Castro.En Cuba no hay elecciones desde hace mas de 50 años, y se ha desatado una histeria sobre la no participación de Cuba en los Centro Americanos de Mayagüez 2010, al no "satisfacer las exigencias del gobierno cubano" el no permitir que sus atletas, nuestros hermanos puedan libremente desplazarse sin ser hostigados por los "entrenadores del equipo cubano "que en un 99% son agentes de la Seguridad del Estado que impiden el que puedan desertar.
Todavía algún "ignorante" pretende decir que el deporte, la música,etc. no están regidos por la política bajo la dictadura cubana.?
Para Cuba ya es hora!
Cambio, no transición!
Antonio M.Abradelo Rodríguez
Delegado en Puerto Rico
Organización Presídio Histórico Cubano
(PPHC).
"Solo con la vida cesará entre nosotros la batalla por la libertad".José Martí.
La Iglesia Católica advirtió que la economía cubana corre el riesgo de colapso y pidió reformas al gobierno de Raúl Castro, quien para enfrentar la crisis impulsa un plan de ajuste, sustitución de importaciones y aumento de la eficiencia y la producción.
"La situación económica de Cuba se ha tornado bastante complicada y con visos de caer en picada (...) se ve ahora enfrentada, debido a sus desequilibrios internos, y atenazada por la difícil situación mundial, a un entorno muy preocupante'', según la nueva edición de la revista "Palabra Nueva'' de la Arquidiócesis de La Habana, encabezada por el cardenal Jaime Ortega, que se distribuye a fines de enero.
La política del Gobierno "ha estado marcada por una falta de definición tanto de perspectiva como de medios, secuestrada por la recentralización ideológica que quiere mantener a toda costa un orden de cosas que ahoga al país''.
"Ahora, enfrentado a la severa crisis mundial, parece hacer aguas y sólo tiene como arsenal de respuesta las afirmaciones utópicas y el reajuste vía reducción fuerte de gastos que puede llevar a un colapso socioeconómico'', según el artículo, del sacerdote y máster en Ciencias Económicas, Boris Moreno.
Tras un crecimiento económico de 1,4% en 2009 -de 6% previsto-, el gobierno admitió una grave crisis de liquidez y proyectó un discreto 1,9% para 2010, con medidas de ahorro, recorte de gasto social, y priorización a las inversiones en sectores que generan divisas.
La revista católica, crítica a menudo con el gobierno, sugirió como medidas de ‘‘mínimo acceso'' la promoción de la pequeña y mediana empresa, seguridad para la inversión extranjera, que el gobierno permita a los ciudadanos "opinar sin que ‘‘implique represalias'', promover las exportaciones, unificación de la moneda, una reforma empresarial y entrada de capitales.
Pero a juicio de Moreno "no se vislumbra ninguna señal'' de los cambios que anunció Raúl Castro tras relevar a su hermano Fidel hace más de tres años y "la desesperanza'' y la crisis podrían "romper la frágil cohesión social''.
Raúl Castro, de 78 años, dice tener conciencia de las esperanzas de los cubanos sobre cambios profundos y rápidos, pero advirtió recientemente que "no puede haber espacio a los riesgos de la improvisación y el apresuramiento'', para preservar el modelo socialista.
El gobierno pide a los cubanos trabajo, disciplina y realismo. "Necesitamos ser exactos, racionales en todos nuestros gastos (...) si no lo hacemos así y empezamos a pedir más y más, llega un momento que no hay más'', dijo el domingo el vicepresidente José Ramón Machado.
La situación que enfrenta la economía cubana (95% en manos del Estado) obedece al arrastre de ineficiencias internas, burocracia y corrupción, a la crisis internacional, las secuelas de tres huracanes en 2008 y el embargo de Estados Unidos, señalan las autoridades.
Pese a que el gobierno busca impulsar la eficiencia con el pago por rendimiento laboral, la productividad decreció 1,1% en 2009. Persiste la burocracia, los robos al Estado para nutrir el mercado negro y el desestímulo porque el salario medio es de 20 dólares al mes, en una sociedad habituada al paternalismo estatal, con salud y educación gratis, y servicios subsidiados.
AYUDA POR LA DEFENSA DE EDUARDO AROCENA
NUEVAMENTE COMIENZA LA LUCHA POR LA LIBERTAD DE EDUARDO AROCENA, TU PUEDES COOPERAR, DIVULGA ESTE SITIO Y SE PARTE DE ESTA OBRA EN FAVOR DE UN PATRIOTA CUBANO.
http://www.defensaeduardoarocena.com/
El legado de Fidel Castro, al pueblo de Cuba. Por Marzo Fernández. (extracto)
1.-Castro, uno de los gobernantes mas ricos del mundo. El quinto según la Revista Forbes.
2.-Pais paralizado en el tiempo, bloqueado al exterior, donde ver o oir emisora extranjera, leer revistas o acceso al Internet conlleva altas condenas de cárcel.
3.-Pais con mas alta inmigracion del mundo mas del 23 % de la población fuera del pais. Unico país que prohibe la salida al extranjero a personalidades que reciben premios internacionales; inclusive el regreso al país que los vió nacer. Para moverse internamente se requieren permisos oficiales.
4.-Tasas de suicidios mas altas del mundo, superada por Japón, 42/100mil hab.
5.-Tasa de divorcios más alta del area 65% en los primeros 2 años de matrimonio.
6.-Serios problemas de identidad nacional, más de 3 millones han solicitado la ciudadania española y cerca de medio millon han optado por visas de USA.
7.-Población penal mas alta del mundo 300 mil reclusos de 11,2 millones hab y el mas alto índice de fusilamientos mas de 5 mil en los últimos 50 años.
8.-Serios problemas raciales. Solo 6% dirigentes son negros. Mas de 60% de población es mestiza. El 80% de la poblacion penal negra menor 40 años. Universidades matricula de negros es del 22%.
9.-Alto grado de corrupción, llevando al encarcelamiento y fusilamiento de generales, ministros por tráfico de drogas robo, etc. Inclusive la elite del poder como Buró Político no ha estado exenta de vulgares delitos como robo, apropiación indebida de recursos del estado, tráfico de influencia, dulce vida, etc.
10.-Convertida en paraiso fiscal para capitales, lavado de dinero y apoyo, protección y exportación terrorismo internacional. Banca Suiza sancionada por lavado de dollares desde Cuba. Estuvo a punto de Holocausto Nuclear. Politica ayuda incondicional a todos los movimientos terroristas del mundo.
11.-Envio de tropas a mas de 10 paises, sacrificando mas de 30 mil cubanos. Mas de un 76% negros.
12.-Unico pais del mundo donde la Declaracion Derechos del Hombre es delito condenable con años de cárcel, disentir o estar en contra de la politica del gobierno es alta traición perseguido por seguridad. La represión se manifiesta en todos los sectores de la vida socio-económica del país.
“Ese es el viejito que inventó el hambre”. Por Rafael M. Estevez. (extracto)
Dos anécdotas sucedidas en Cuba. La primera me la acaba de relatar un amigo llegado de la isla después de esperar por casi 8 años para salir del Paraíso de los hermanos que la desgobiernan. En la tarde de un domingo fue con su esposa e hijo a uno de los dos cines que quedan en Marianao, la antigua “Ciudad que Progresa”, tratando de cambiar de ambiente. Ambos teatros están en muy mal estado a veces no hay funciones por días. Proyectaron noticias de las bondades que hay en China y Rusia, países con buenas relaciones con la satrapía cubana. Al proyectar las de Rusia, se vió al malvado, perverso, tétrico y maligno Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. Desde el fondo del teatro se escuchó una voz de barítono que dijo: "Ese es el viejito que inventó el Hambre", las risas no se hicieron esperar y por varios minutos empezaron a aplaudir. Un policía que estaba afuera ordenó interrumpir la función y encendieron las luces y durante 10 minutos amenazó y dijo algunas malas palabras, sin respuesta. Llamó por refuerzos y vinieron otros tres, que no pudieron arrestar al que dijo semejante verdad y todo terminó felizmente.
Lo sucedido se corrió por el barrio, pero nunca los que sabían quien fue el que lo dijo se dejaron amedentrar a pesar que los policías juraron encontrar al que lo dijo. Hasta el momento de emigrar nadie delató al ciudadano que hizo el chiste que es la pura realidad porque el comunismo te mata de dos maneras, fusilándote o de hambre. Hubo otra que sucedió en las afueras del Metropolitan, en Almendares y propiedad del desaparecido Federico Piñero, que hacía el personaje de gallego con Alberto Garrido en “Chicharito y Sopeira”. Llegaron unos milicianos con la actitud que siempre los caracteriza y preguntaron: "Den un paso al frente los que hayan estado en la dictadura?",... Uno de los jóvenes que estaba respondió: "¿En qué dictadura?". Las risas no se hicieron esperar y los milicianos no les quedó más remedio que también reirse y se fueron contentos de la ocurrencia del joven. En un sistema en que el pueblo está bajo una férrea tiranía, no ha podido silenciar las bromas y el carácter festivo del cubano.
Denuncia de Cerámica Roja.
Jorge Alberto Liriano Linares, prisionero desde la prisión Provisional Cerámica Roja, dicta los textos por teléfono y Magaly Norvis Otero Suarez los trascribe.
Camagüey, 27 de enero. — Secuestrado por los órganos de la seguridad del estado cubano, permanecen en prisión los ciudadanos Naurel Lezcano García y su hermano menor Nusvel, ambos acusados por un supuesto e improbable delito de tráfico de persona.
Victimas de un aparatoso y represivo operativo policial efectuado el pasado día 11 de diciembre en su domicilio, ubicado en la calle E No 40 entre Gloria y Final, en el reparto Pillería, municipio Vertiente, donde tuvo lugar un registro sin la orden judicial oficial, ocupando solamente un teléfono celular para posteriormente proceder al secuestro de ambos acusados quienes fueron trasladados al cuartel de investigaciones provincial de la policía política.
Según expresa públicamente Naurel Lezcano en las cámaras de tormento de los órganos de la seguridad del estado, recibieron tratos crueles y fueron torturados hasta el punto que el y su hermano decidieron morir plantados para demostrar su inocencia.
Luego de 14 días de rechazo de alimentos fueron enviados a prisión provisional sin que hasta la fecha el sistema judicial pueda obtener un solo elemento probatorio del delito que pretenden imputarle.
Las esposas de los acusados también fueron detenidas y sometidas a interrogatorios extenuantes y crueles, amenazadas de quitarle el cuidado de sus hijos menores para lograr falsos testimonios contra sus esposos.
Fueron otros de los mecanismo de represión utilizados contra esa familia de origen humilde a quienes se le esta violando todos sus derechos civiles ciudadanos y constitucionales.
Y es que en Cuba después de más de 50 años de dictadura totalitaria el pueblo solo debe esperar lo peor del sistema judicial y sus fuerzas represivas que actúan en total impunidad encubierto por el régimen y sus gobernantes.
Arrestan a varios opositores, entre ellos un periodista.
Por Magaly Norvis Otero Suárez.
Centro de Información Hablemos Press.
www.cihpress.com
magaly.otero1963@yahoo.com
La Habana, 27 de enero.― Una decena de activistas de distintas organizaciones opositoras y el corresponsal de Hablemos Press, Raúl Parada Ramírez, fueron arrestado en un violento operativo desplegado por la policía política en el reparto La Catalina en Santiago de las Vegas, en la tarde del miércoles.
Según dijo en una entrevista telefónica Rodolfo Ramírez Cardoso, Presidente del Movimiento Línea Pacifica Democrática, una organización no gubernamental, “los activistas se estaban reuniendo en mi casa, sito en calle 212 número 40937 e/ 409 y 413 reparto la Catalina para realizar un conversatorio sobre José Martí al conmemorarse el 28 de enero, el aniversario 157 de su natalicio”.
Rodolfo, dijo que entre los arrestados se encuentran Raúl Paradas Ramírez, corresponsal enviado del Centro de Información Hablemos Press, Miguel López Santos, Francisco Manuel Gutiérrez, Orlando Corso, Pastor Pérez Sánchez, Sara Marta Fonseca Quevedo, Miguel Argel Leiva Isad entre otros opositores y también Rodolfo Ramírez Hernández, su hijo, de 21 años de edad, ex integrante del grupo musical Los Latinos.
Ramírez Cardoso, explicó que había salido a buscar a Rodolfo Nada Ortega, (minusválido) un activista de su partido cuando al regreso fue avisado por los vecinos que los antes mencionados habían sido sacados de la casa por agentes de la policía nacional represiva que recibían ordenes de oficiales de la seguridad.
Al cierre de la nota Rodolfo Noda informó que en el reparto la Catalina se encontraba desplazado un operativo de la policía política de gran envergadura. Y aseguró que otro grupo de opositores había sido arrestado en la calle.
También Odaly Zurma González Naya, activista de derechos humanos y periodista, residente en Santiago de las Vegas dijo que oficiales de la seguridad se habían presentado en su casa para advertirle que no saliera pues se encontraba bajo arresto domiciliario.
Falta de medicamentos en las farmacias.
Por Jaime Leygonier.
La Habana.― En las farmacias habaneras falta desde diciembre el colirio Timolol 0.5%, indispensable para el tratamiento de los pacientes de glaucoma.
Este medicamento es uno de los que vende muy controlados el gobierno, por venta una vez al mes, previa anotación en una tarjeta del paciente.
Documento llamado" Tarjetón", que consigue el enfermo con trámites de obtención y entrega en la farmacia de un certificado médico, y que pierde si no compra el medicamento durante tres meses.
Esa pérdida lo obliga a reiniciar los tramites de obtención del tarjetón para "tener derecho" a comprar el medicamento cuya falta así además del perjuicio de carecer de medicación ocasiona el inconveniente de estos trámites.
Hace décadas que en las farmacias escasean temporalmente los medicamentos o son totalmente retirados de la venta. Algunos de los productos en ese caso son:
Las farmacias no venden yodo, mercurio cromo, venditas o curitas, gotas nasales, bicarbonato, algodón (el algodón, si reaparece como sustituto ocasional de los tampones, lo venden a las mujeres por cartilla de racionamiento).
Desde principios de los 60, el estado prohibió todo producto que contuviera glicerina, para evitar lo emplearan en confección de explosivos.
Rara vez venden las farmacias anti- ácidos. Cuando aparecen termómetros los venden por receta y cartilla de racionamiento. El alcohol no lo venden desde hace más de 20 años, pese a que Cuba es productora y lo emplea en industrias de bebidas alcohólicas.
· El NO como Caballo de Troya.
Nominación y elección de candidatos alternativos durante el proceso electoral del gobierno castrista en la primavera de 2010.
Esta es una ocasión, respaldada por la Ley Electoral vigente, para que la oposición política pueda darse a conocer dentro de la comunidad y establecer un vínculo directo con la ciudadanía. Además, posibilita un marco “legal” el de ser elegidos algunos de estos candidatos, que figuren con un respaldo institucional para promover proyectos comunitarios y dar espacios de autodeterminación a la ciudadanía.
El sistema totalitario que rige los destinos del país desde hace más de medio siglo, utilizará todos los medios a su alcance: descrédito, chantaje, control, miedo, terror, división y la fuerza de ser necesaria, para frenar a los candidatos pro democracia en el proceso electoral.
Nuestra participación en las llamadas elecciones cubanas no es un reconocimiento al sistema político ni a su supuesta legalidad. Al contrario, presentarse como candidato alternativo en las asambleas de nominación es un claro acto de desafío y resistencia civil. Es un reto ante el régimen con todas las secuelas que trae este acto de expresarse en público contra el gobierno.
Para proteger a nuestros candidatos desde ahora, llamamos a la comunidad internacional, a la prensa independiente y acreditada en el país y, a los grupos que monitorean la problemática del respeto a los derechos humanos a fin que se presenten en las asambleas de nominación, el día fijado para elegir a los delegados de circunscripción (concejales). Y, con su presencia apoyen moralmente y validen la transparencia de la votación.
Nuestros candidatos de ser elegidos, actuarán como Caballos de Troya, con su actitud en defensa de la ciudadanía respaldando sus demandas y peticiones. Retarán las estructuras y leyes del régimen demostrando la ineficacia de las políticas que lleva a cabo el gobierno que preside Raúl Castro y la Séptima Legislatura de la Asamblea Nacional.
Este tipo de propuesta, con sus lógicas diferencias, fue utilizada en la España franquista y la Polonia comunista, posibilitando en estos países un tránsito al Estado de Derecho.
· El NO para derrumbar moralmente al régimen.
De forma paralela, llamamos a la ciudadanía para que, donde no existan candidatos alternativos, escriban en la boleta NO. Un NO que actúe como voto de castigo y que a su vez muestre el compromiso con la Nación Opositora.
De igual modo, desde ahora y hasta que se renueve el parlamento cubano en el 2012, el NO se convierta en el mensaje de protesta más efectivo. Al hacerlo visible, y de esta manera educamos a la ciudadanía en la filosofía de la resistencia pacífica. Que es invadir la Asamblea del gobierno en la base, léase en la circunscripción (el barrio) y ganar.
Para las autoridades y sus representantes, cada NO debe ser un mensaje claro de que los cubanos estamos cansados de que se nos quiera robar nuestro futuro. Y, que se pretenda mantener un sistema político-económico que ha demostrado con creces el sufrimiento y penuria de millones de cubanos, que sólo sirve para beneficiar a un grupo de miembros de la nomenklatura comunista.
Si logramos multiplicar el NO, podremos alcanzar seis millones de votos NO en diciembre del 2012 de los 8 millones y medio de votantes potenciales y con esta acción provocar el derrumbe moral del régimen.
No es una idea nuestra, en Chile bajo Pinochet, Alemania del Este en 1989 y Eslovaquia diez años después, el NO de la población obligó a pactar con la oposición y facilitar el retorno a la democracia.
· El NO como elemento unificador de la oposición política.
Durante décadas la policía política ha sido efectiva impidiendo que los activistas prodemocráticos nos vinculemos al pueblo. Cuando se hace más evidente la crisis del anciano régimen, es oportuno utilizar la Campaña por el NO para cuestionar al sistema y aumentar nuestra capacidad de convocatoria.
La Campaña por el Vota NO es una plataforma de lanzamiento para futuras iniciativas pro democráticas. Deja de lado a los caudillos, los mega-proyectos y credos políticos, responde a la necesidad de mostrar a millones de cubanos una vía segura, legal y secreta para expresar el desacuerdo con el régimen totalitario.
Frente a un adversario poderoso todavía, el recurso supremo es la unidad.
La oposición chavista así lo comprendió, y en diciembre de 2007 impidió que fructificara una iniciativa que facilitaría al presidente venezolano mantenerse de forma perpetua en el poder con su socialismo irrevocable. Ahora también, dejando de lado innecesarios protagonismos y diferencias ideológicas, concurrirán de forma articulada a las elecciones parlamentarias del presente año.
Eventos como Concilio Cubano, el Congreso de la Nación Cubana, el Proyecto Varela, el acto del 20 de mayo de 2005 promovido por la Asamblea Para Promover la Sociedad Civil, la Campaña por Una Sola Moneda, el Congreso del Presidio Político cubano o las iniciativas realizadas por el Arco Progresista, por sólo mencionar algunos ejemplos, juntaron a amplios sectores de la disidencia y oposición política cubana. Demostraron que cuando hay unión de pensamiento y acción es posible dar pasos de avance en el logro de nuestras aspiraciones democráticas.
La Campaña por el Vota NO parte del consenso, del trabajo en equipo y una visión objetiva de nuestra realidad. Es una herramienta para vincularnos de forma directa con el pueblo y dar a conocer nuestras propuestas. Está respaldada por la Constitución y las leyes vigentes, que aún cuando el gobierno las viola de forma sistemática, brindan un margen de cobertura para llevarla a cabo.
Por último, durante décadas el régimen ha creado una telaraña de compromisos y miedos que atan al ciudadano obligándolo a vivir con una doble moral. La Campaña por el Vota NO sólo le pide cinco segundos de su tiempo, para votar por el candidato alternativo o plasmar el NO donde quiera y sea visible. Son sólo cinco segundos que pondrán fin a más de cincuenta años de totalitarismo.
Dificultades hay muchas pero es hora ya de cambiar nuestro destino.
¡EL NO ES UN SÍ POR EL FUTURO, LA LIBERTAD Y EL RESPETO A NUESTROS DERECHOS!
Ciudadanos que respaldan esta iniciativa:
Alberto A. Arozarena González
Abigail Ortega Beltrán
Alexander Ortega Martínez
Alexis Gómez Rodríguez
Alfredo Gutiérrez Fleitas
Alfredo Utset León
Ángela Digna Pérez Firrera
Ariel Ramos Acosta
Arnel Herrera Padrón
Asela Vega Castillo
Camilo Díaz Martín
Carlos A. Fernández Sánchez
Carlos N. Álvarez Elías
Carlos Nodarse González
Carlos Ríos García
Carlos Ríos Otero
Carlos Suarez Licour
Charles Enelvis Rodríguez
Ciro J. Torres Arcia
Conrado Rodríguez Suarez
Constantín Durán
Damián Perera
Dioselis Blanco Ramírez
Edel Bárbaro Nodarse
Edelmis Rodríguez Lobaina
Edilberto Rodríguez Osorio
Eliosbel Garriga Cabrera
Emilio Hechavarría Sánchez
Esteban Ajete Abascal
Frank Delgado Macías
German Fuentes Barata
Giraldo Borrego Márquez
Giselda Castro Tort
Gliselia Camejo Corrales
Ignacio Ramos Valdés
Jesús M. Cáceres Hernández
José A. Martínez Marques
José Ramón Avalo
José Reyes Cañizares
Juan Carlos Fernández Hernández
Lady Fernández Sánchez
Lázaro Monzón López
Lázaro Pedro M. Calderín Tápanes
Lázaro R. Pérez García
Leo Jiménez Ojeda
Lester Cabrera Pérez
Luis E. Valdés Nodarse
Luis Cino Álvarez
Luis R. Hernández Rodríguez
Magalis Otero Suárez
Mayté González Castro
Mamiuska Rodríguez Serrano
Mario Izquierdo Sotolongo
Mercedes Reigoza Orozco
Miguel Morejón Román
Milayes Fumero Fumero
Minaldo Ramos Salgado
Mireya Cruz Morales
Miriam Torres Balmaseda
Olga María Pérez Acosta
Omayda Padrón Azcuy
Orlando Fundora Álvarez
Durante un desayuno informativo del Fórum Europa patrocinado por Asisa, BT y Red Eléctrica, Díaz Ferrán afirmó que los empresarios no son la "excepción a la crisis" y añadió que han padecido sus efectos y las condiciones "durísimas" que han supuesto el cierre de más de 300.000 empresas.
Subrayó la dificultad por la que atraviesan los empresarios, muchos de los cuales han tenido que comprometer su patrimonio, pero señaló que, a pesar de ello, mantienen la firma voluntad de seguir "luchando, arriesgando e invirtiendo".
Díaz Ferrán recordó que las empresas de la CEOE dan trabajo a más de 12 millones de trabajadores, al tiempo que subrayó que la organización seguirá trabajando "en equipo", tomando decisiones con "consenso", ejes de conducta que continuarán guiando a la patronal "en unos momentos en los que la unidad es más fuerte que nunca".
Preguntado sobre si los problemas al frente de Air Comet le influyen a la hora de presidir la patronal, dijo que mientras que los empresarios le apoyen "seguirá" y, en relación a la posible presión del Gobierno, descartó cualquier intromisión en el futuro. Recordó asimismo que en el momento del cierre de Air Comet ya no era propietario de la aerolínea, después de que ésta se vendiera a principios de diciembre.
Las propuestas laborales del Gobierno se "quedan cortas"
Por otro lado, Díaz Ferrán aseguró hoy que el listado de propuestas que contempla la reforma laboral en la que trabaja el Gobierno "se queda corto", por lo que adelantó que la CEOE se planteará "con altura de miras, sin perímetros y líneas rojas" una lectura amplia de la propuesta "con ambición, realismo, altura de miras y la mejor disposición al diálogo y al acuerdo".
"Debemos abordar esta reforma con la tenacidad y esfuerzos necesarios para que (la reforma) sea útil para las empresas y los trabajadores", señaló, y recordó que esta reforma no contempla algunos cambios fiscales necesarios para los empresarios, alguna propuesta energética o elementos que permitan la recuperación del crédito.
Sobre la propuesta de la patronal para modificar el despido, Díaz Ferrán aseguró que la CEOE no plantea disminuir las garantías o derechos de los trabajadores, sino que baraja la posibilidad de crear un nuevo tipo de contrato estable para algunos colectivos, como los parados o los jóvenes que no tienen trabajo, aunque aseguró que no es el tema principal del diálogo social.
Aún así, celebró que se haya abierto el debate nacional sobre la necesidad de llevar a cabo la "imprescindible" reforma del mercado laboral para salir de la crisis y asentar las bases de un nuevo patrón de crecimiento, al tiempo que pidió al Ejecutivo que siga avanzando en esta dirección y ofreció la colaboración de la patronal que nunca planteará "líneas rojas" a ninguna negociación.
Partidario de alargar la vida laboral hasta los 70 años
Asimismo, dijo hoy que la esperanza de vida aumenta permanentemente y, por tanto, "no me parece mal" que se eleve 70 años, aunque señaló que esta cuestión debería estudiarse en la mesa del diálogo social.
El presidente de la patronal también señaló que le parece "razonable" que no haya jubilaciones con 54 y 55 años, y que "no casa lo uno con lo otro", por lo que consideró necesario buscar soluciones en los dos sentidos.
Uno de los mayores expertos del mundo en renta fija, el estadounidense Bill Gross (Pimco), ha dicho hoy que hay que evitar la inversión en deuda pública de países con fuerte deterioro de sus cuentas públicas, como España
En este nuevo entorno económico resulta instructivo observar que el mundo operativo es ‘nuevo’ y que la utilización de modelos históricos y previsiones econométricas basadas en la experiencia de las últimas décadas podría no sólo ser inútil, sino contraproductiva. Cuando el des-apalancamiento y la des-regulación no solo se ralentizan sino que se mueven en territorio recesionista de la mano del des-apalancamiento y la des-regulación, entonces hay que mirar a los ejemplos históricos en los que se han producido esas circunstancias. Existen dos excelentes estudios que ayudan en ese tema – el primero, un estudio de ocho siglos de crisis financieras por Carmen Reinhart y Kenneth Rogoff titulado ‘Esta vez es diferente’, y el segundo, un studio del McKinsey Global Institute que habla de “Deuda y des-apalancamiento: La burbuja de crédito global y sus consecuencias económicas”.
El libro de Reinhart/Rogoff halba principalmente de la deuda pública que se hincha en respuesta a las crisis financieras. Se trata de un estudio voluminoso, y académico pero aporta muchas conclusiones desde el análisis de siglos de ciclos de deuda soberana. Dice así:
El verdadero legado de las crisis bancarias es una gran deuda pública, mucho más allá de los costes directos pro los paquetes de ayuda. La media de la deuda remanente de un país se duplica en los tres años que siguen a la crisis.
La resaca de las crisis bancarias está asociada con un aumento medio de siete puntos porcentuales en la tasa de desempleo, que se mantiene elevada durante cinco años. Una vez que la deuda pública de un país excede el 90% de su PIB, su crecimiento económico se ralentiza en un punto porcentual.
Sus conclusiones son paralelas a los sucesos de los últimos doce meses y sugieren que la ‘nueva normalidad’ bien podría ser descrita como el “test de la confianza histórica”. Estos ejemplos tienden a confirmar que las cirsis bancarias vienen seguidas por un des-apalancamiento del sector privado junto a una sustitución y aumento de la deuda pública, lo que reduce el crecimiento económico y la rentabildiad de los activos financieros. Los países más vulnerables en 2010 están incluidos en el gráfico “El anillo de fuego”. Estos países de la zona roja son lo que tiene una mayor probabilidad de que su deuda pública exceda el 90% de su PIB en unos pocos años, lo que recortaría su PIB en un 1% o más. Los amarillos o verdes son los más conservadores y potencialmente más solventes, con el potencial para un mayor crecimiento.
Un estudio diferente del Grupo McKinsey analiza el actual apalancamiento en la economía total (deuda de hogares, empresas y gobiernos) y revisa la historia, donde encuentra 32 ejemplos de des-apalancamiento sostenido tras una crisis financiera. Las conclusiones son que: El des-apalancamiento termina dos años después del incio de la crisis (2008 en este caso) y dura de seis a siete años.
En cerca del 50% de los casos, el des-apalancamiento resulta en un prolongado periodo de ‘apretarse el cinturón’ que ejerce un lastre significativo en el crecimiento en el PIB. También, el des-apalancamiento resulta en impagos de la deuda tanto pública como corporativa, o un aumento de la inflación, todo lo cual es una forma de herejía para los inversores.
Las condiciones iniciales son importantes
Las condiciones iniciales son importantes porque la capacidad de un país de responder a la crisis está relacionada con el tamaño de su deuda existente y porque indica el potencial futuro de su financiación ¿Es una novedad que en esta nueva normalidad China, India, Brasil y otras economías en desarrollo lo hayan hecho mejor que sus homólogos del G-7? Nuestra nueva normalidad distingue entre el crecimiento económico de las economías emergentes y desarrolladas, previendo un mejor futuro para los primeros frente a los segundos. “Escalada” podría ser una descripción conservadora del futuro de los países desarrollados. “Estable” podría ser más applicable a mucha deuda soberana emergente.
Las tendencias de los tipos de interés en los mercados desarrollados no siguen las mismas condiciones observadas durante la reciente Gran Moderación. La ruta bajista de las rentabilidades para muchas econonías del G-7 fue similar en las últimas décadas a excepción de la amalgama de las dos Alemanias y la experiencia japonesa que todavía se mantiene aislada. ¿Debería un inversor esperar una ola alcista correlativa en los próximos años? No. No solo han empezado ya las expectativas económicas a ensanchar los diferenciales de la deuda, sino que las condiciones iniciales de esa deuda serán muy importantes, pues influyen en la inflación y los tipos de interés en los años siguientes. Cada uno de los mercados de bonos de las economías desarrolladas presenta aspectos interesantes que merece la pena vigilar. 1) Japón con el envejecimiento de su población y necesidad de financiación externa, 2) EEUU con su enorme déficit, 3) Europa con sus miembros por separado – Alemania, un ahorrador extremo y productor productivo, España y Grecia con su excesiva dependencia sobre la deuda y 4) el Reino Unido, con los mayores niveles de deuda y una economía orientada a las finanzas – expuesta como Londres a las oscuras aguas del des-apalancamiento
SABMiller, la segunda empresa productora de cerveza del mundo, dijo que habrá más oportunidades de crecer a través de adquisiciones en América Latina luego de perder la oportunidad de comprar la división de cerveza de Fomento Económico Mexicano SAB, según informó el sitio Bloomberg News
Perder la puja por la compañía mexicana a manos de Heineken NV "no es el fin del mundo", dijo Barry Smith, el director general latinoamericano de SABMiller durante un seminario realizado en Londres. "Sigo pensando que hay oportunidades de compra en América Latina".
El fabricante de Águila redujo el pronóstico de crecimiento de su volumen en América Latina debido a un aumento del impuesto al consumo en Colombia, que constituye más de 50% de las ganancias de SABMiller en la región.
América Latina, que aporta más del 25% de las ganancias de la compañía, debería beneficiarse de un incremento del consumo per cápita conforme se reanuda el crecimiento económico y los consumidores pasan de las bebidas alcohólicas locales a la cerveza, dijo Smith.
"Las futuras oportunidades de crecimiento en el marco de nuestros mercados actuales son grandes", dijo Smith, que agregó que países como Brasil y Venezuela son perspectivas "muy atractivas".
SABMiller controla alrededor de 98% del mercado colombiano y tiene divisiones en Perú, Ecuador, Panamá, Honduras y El Salvador.
Los volúmenes latinoamericanos crecerán entre 4% y 6% a "mediano plazo", dijo la empresa. El pronóstico anterior de SABMiller era de entre 5% y 7%. El crecimiento estará más en la franja superior que en la inferior del nuevo espectro, dijo Smith.
Un aumento de precio de 8% resulta "inevitable" en Colombia debido a la propuesta de elevar el impuesto al valor agregado en el país el mes próximo y puede reducir el crecimiento del volumen 4,5%, agregó Smith. SABMiller "no se embolsará" el aumento de precio y analiza un segundo incremento en octubre, añadió.
Cemex cerró 2009 ligando cuatro trimestres consecutivos con ganancias, en medio de la severa presión que trae en su deuda, informó ayer la propia compañía.
Para el periodo octubre-diciembre del año pasado, la empresa señaló que la utilidad fue de 265 millones de dólares, gracias a las ganancias cambiarias y ganancias en instrumentos financieros, mitigados por una menor utilidad de operación y mayores gastos financieros.
Los resultados en esos rubros, explicaron analistas, obedecieron a no incluir el cargo financiero de la venta de los activos de Australia, realizados en octubre del 2009.
Patricio Rivera Torres, analista de IXE Casa de Bolsa, comentó que considerando este último factor, la empresa hubiera reportado una pérdida de 210 millones de dólares.
Aún así, calificó de positivo este hecho, en razón de que la pérdida (contabilizado el cargo) es menor a los 450 millones de dólares que anticipaba el mercado para la empresa.
Para todo 2009, Cemex reportó una utilidad neta de 436 millones de dólares, cifra en 749 por ciento superior a los 51 millones de dólares de 2008.
Las ventas netas consolidadas sumaron 14 mil 54 millones de dólares en todo el año, 19 por ciento menos.
Cemex cerró 2009 ligando cuatro trimestres consecutivos con ganancias, en medio de la severa presión que trae en su deuda, informó ayer la propia compañía.
Para el periodo octubre-diciembre del año pasado, la empresa señaló que la utilidad fue de 265 millones de dólares, gracias a las ganancias cambiarias y ganancias en instrumentos financieros, mitigados por una menor utilidad de operación y mayores gastos financieros.
Los resultados en esos rubros, explicaron analistas, obedecieron a no incluir el cargo financiero de la venta de los activos de Australia, realizados en octubre del 2009.
Patricio Rivera Torres, analista de IXE Casa de Bolsa, comentó que considerando este último factor, la empresa hubiera reportado una pérdida de 210 millones de dólares.
Aún así, calificó de positivo este hecho, en razón de que la pérdida (contabilizado el cargo) es menor a los 450 millones de dólares que anticipaba el mercado para la empresa.
Para todo 2009, Cemex reportó una utilidad neta de 436 millones de dólares, cifra en 749 por ciento superior a los 51 millones de dólares de 2008.
Las ventas netas consolidadas sumaron 14 mil 54 millones de dólares en todo el año, 19 por ciento menos.
La firma mexicana de inversión Tresalia Capital adquirió a la pequeña automotriz alemana de reciente creación Artega Motors, orientada a la fabricación de autos deportivos de lujo, según reportes difundidos hoy en medios especializados.
Tresalia Capital, propiedad de la familia Aramburuzabala, con inversiones en múltiples compañías mexicanas, ha tomado el control completo de Artega, informaron Autoblog y Autocar, dos portales de Internet especializados en la industria automotriz.
De acuerdo con las fuentes, Tresalia Capital, que desde 2008 tenía un porcentaje de propiedad en Artega, nombró al ex ingeniero de la BMW Wolfgang Ziebartto para dirigir ahora las operaciones de la compañía.
Artega Motors se apresta a producir en una nueva planta en Delbruck, Alemania, su primer auto, el Artega GT. El automóvil de dos puertas fue diseñado por el danés Henrik Fisker, quien creó también el BMW Z8 y el Aston Martin Vantage.
El auto, mostrado por primera vez en la Exposición Automovilística de Frankfurt en 2007, viene con un chasis de aluminio y una carrocería de fibra de carbono y está dotado con un motor VW V6 de 3.6 litros, con una caja de seis velocidades.
El vehículo, que sigue estilos semejantes a los de Porsche y Ferrari, tendría un costo de más de 100 mil dólares en Alemania.
Según los reportes, Artega planea construir unos 500 automóviles de este tipo por año.
Tresalia Capital es encabezada por María Asunción Aramburuzabala, considerada una de las más fuertes empresarias latinoamericanas y del mundo.
Con el objetivo de ofrecer estrategias de inversión patrimoniales y de largo plazo que arrojen rendimientos altamente competitivos, superiores a los que da la banca, Somoza Finamex Inversiones inició operaciones para constituirse en una opción más en el mercado del ahorro y la inversión en México. Esta empresa nace de la asociación del empresario Manuel Somoza Alonso con la Casa de Bolsa Finamex, que es presidida por Eduardo Carrillo, y opera como una subsidiaria de ésta.
Manuel Somoza es ahora el presidente de Somoza Finamex Inversiones y Juan Musi Amioni, su director general. Su mercado de competencia es el segmento de personas físicas patrimoniales, lo que se conoce como la banca privada.
"El propósito es trasladar a nuestros clientes los beneficios de la excelente estrategia de inversión de las carteras Finamex. El año pasado las personas que invirtieron en la cartera Finamex de renta fija, obtuvieron un rendimiento bruto del 11.88 por ciento. Para los que diversificaron sus portafolios con los índices de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, el Standard and Poor's y de otros mercados emergentes, su ganancia fue mayor", dijo hoy Manuel Somoza.
Agregó que la misión de la empresa es construir portafolios de inversión a la medida de cada cliente, que correspondan a sus necesidades futuras, tomando en cuenta los niveles de riesgo que en lo individual cada cliente desea aceptar. La compañía cuenta con ejecutivos especializados para realizar un diagnóstico correcto para diseñar estrategias de inversión personalizadas que maximicen los rendimientos.
Somoza Finamex Inversiones ofrece portafolios de inversión en renta fija en pesos con niveles de riesgo bajo o moderado, así como especializados en cartera gubernamental o en una cartera denominada Finamex. Igualmente ofrece la oportunidad para diversificar los portafolios en renta fija en dólares y otras monedas, así como, de renta variable y en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores y Bolsas internacionales.
La amplia experiencia adquirida de Manuel Somoza, abarca diversos cargos como director General de las operaciones bursátiles en instituciones financieras como Banamex, Nafinsa, Inverméxico, Banco Mexicano y Prudential Bank, entre otros.
Somoza Finamex Inversiones opera en el Distrito Federal, Monterrey y Guadalajara, y tiene presencia en EU por medio de Valores Finamex International Inc.
With the new tablet device that is debuting next week, Apple Inc. Chief Executive Steve Jobs is betting he can reshape businesses like textbooks, newspapers and television much the way his iPod revamped the music industry—and expand Apple's influence and revenue as a content middleman.
In developing the device, Apple focused on the role the gadget could play in homes and in classrooms, say people familiar with the situation. The company envisions that the tablet can be shared by multiple family members to read news and check email in homes, these people say.
Despite its digital legacy, Apple is betting that its Tablet can revitalize television, magazines and newspapers in the way iTunes changed music. Ethan Smith joins the News Hub panel to discuss.
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News Hub: Apple Looks to Reshape Media Apple Tablet on Tap Apple's Tablet, as Imagined by Publishers For classrooms, Apple has been exploring electronic-textbook technology. Apple also has been looking at how content from newspapers and magazines can be presented differently on the tablet, according to the people familiar with the situation. Other people briefed on the device say the tablet will come with a virtual keyboard.
Apple has recently been in discussions with book, magazine and newspaper publishers about how they can work together. The company has talked with New York Times Co., Condé Nast Publications Inc. and HarperCollins Publishers and its owner News Corp., which also owns The Wall Street Journal, over content for the tablet, say people familiar with the talks.
New York Times Chairman Arthur Sulzberger declined to comment in an interview Wednesday on its involvement in the new device except to say, "stay tuned."
Apple is also negotiating with television networks such as CBS Corp. and Walt Disney Co., which owns ABC, for a monthly TV subscription service, the Journal has reported. Apple is also working with videogame publisher Electronic Arts Inc. to show off the tablet's game capabilities, according to one person familiar with the matter.
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Vote: What price would you pay for Apple's new tablet device? Discuss: What features would you want to see it have? Vote: Touch, voice - How would you prefer to interact with technology? Vote: What do you most want to buy as your next computer? Apple's strategy contrasts with how other technology companies are approaching media. Notably, Google Inc. offers content to consumers largely free on properties like its video-sharing site YouTube, making relatively little distinction between clips from users and those of professional media companies, although YouTube this week said it plans to experiment with movie rentals. Web sites like Twitter and Facebook also provide outlets for user-generated content.
Mr. Jobs has a longstanding strategy of devising new ways to access and pay for quality content, instead of reinventing the content. Apple's iTunes Store, for instance, became the world's largest music retailer partly by making it easy for people to buy music, most of it from major record labels, by the song instead of by the album. Its digital-media receiver Apple TV was also designed so people can buy and rent movies and television shows.
Mr. Jobs is "supportive of the old guard, and [he] looks to help them by giving them new forms of distribution," says a person who has worked with the CEO. "What drives all of these changes is technology, and Apple has an ability to influence that."
Apple's divide with Google over how it views media content also drives the wedge deeper between the two companies. Apple's iPhone, for example, currently closely integrates Google's mapping and search technology, but a person familiar with the matter said Apple was in serious discussions with Microsoft Corp. to incorporate its Bing search engine into the iPhone as the default search and map technologies. Microsoft declined to comment. The talks were reported earlier by BusinessWeek.
Details of how Apple charges for the content on its tablet couldn't be learned, but people familiar with the company's thinking say Apple could change conventional payment structures. One person familiar with the matter said the company was discussing with the New York Times how it could charge for news through iTunes. It is unclear how people will access content wirelessly off the tablet.
An Apple spokesman said the company "doesn't comment on rumors and speculation." Mr. Jobs didn't respond to a request for comment.
Mr. Jobs' effort to repackage and resell more media content isn't without obstacles. He already has faced resistance from television companies and cable-network providers over Apple's desire to license just their best content rather than all of it.
Many music executives complain that it has become a powerful gatekeeper between the labels and customers. What's more, the iTunes Store's music downloads haven't grown fast enough to offset the decline in CD sales for music companies.
On Monday, Apple sent out an invitation to a media event on Jan. 27 "to see our latest creation." The tablet, which Apple currently plans to ship in March, will have about a 10- to 11-inch touch screen, say people familiar with the situation.
Apple CEO Steve Jobs spoke during an event in September 2009.
Apple's tablet foray faces several obstacles. Analysts say demand will depend on its price, which some believe will be about $1,000. Apple must also convince consumers the product is worth buying in addition to an iPhone and a laptop computer. And Apple faces competition from cheaper netbooks and other devices such as Amazon.com Inc.'s Kindle e-book reader.
The tablet's success will depend "on how this product can fit into the user's daily life... and whether you have enough content to make it important enough to use it," said Henry Lu, senior vice president of Taiwanese computer company Micro-Star International Co., which failed at selling a tablet computer a few years ago.
In the academic arena, Apple could face hurdles wooing universities if the tablet doesn't meet their needs or isn't compatible with other computing devices that students are using.
Amazon had been hoping to target the market with its 9.7-inch screen Kindle DX e-book reader, for example, but schools said the device wasn't sufficiently interactive and lacked basics such as page numbers and color graphics.
One person familiar with the matter said Apple has put significant resources into designing and programming the device so that it is intuitive to share. This person said Apple has experimented with the ability to leave virtual sticky notes on the device and for the gadget to automatically recognize individuals via a built-in camera. It is unclear whether these features will be included at launch.
Apple's content-related efforts heated up in the fall. In October, Apple sent representatives to the Frankfurt Book Fair, the industry's largest trade fair, according to one person familiar with the matter.
At the same time, Apple pitched media companies on a "best of TV" subscription service to television networks under which customers would pay a monthly fee for on-demand access to programs from a bundle of participating TV networks, giving consumers another way to readily access television content.
At a meeting in New York with one network in October, an Apple executive said the company was specifically looking to access four to six shows per channel, said one person familiar with the meeting.
Apple also has been planning a revamp of its iTunes music service by creating a Web-based version of it that could launch as soon as June, say people familiar with the matter. Tentatively called iTunes.com, the service would allow customers to buy music without going through the specialized iTunes program on computers and iPhones.
People familiar with Apple's plans say a central part of the new strategy is to populate as many Web sites as possible with "buy" buttons, integrating iTunes transactions into activities like listening to Internet radio and surfing review Web sites.
In November, Apple hired Tracy Augustine, a former executive at textbook publishers Cengage Learning Inc. and Pearson Education Inc., as the director of world-wide education. Ms. Augustine is responsible for "driving global strategy and revenue for the education online store for students," according to her LinkedIn description.
Ms. Augustine didn't respond to a request for comment.
If Google Inc. shuts down its Chinese search engine, the biggest winner is likely to be Baidu Inc., the search leader here. But even if Google retreats, the Chinese company still would face big challenges, from developing innovative products to facing new competition by local rivals.
Baidu already is China's most popular Web site by traffic and it dominates the country's search market, with nearly 60% of total industry revenue. Google's share has grown in recent years but the U.S. company still gets only about a third of total revenue.
Baidu's share would certainly rise if Google closes its Chinese ...
WHETHER OR NOT YOU AGREE WITH President Obama's new proposals to restrict the size and activities of America's big banks, it's hard to argue that he shouldn't have a role in the policymaking process. But when it comes to cutting Wall Street pay, he's barking up the wrong tree.
It's up to management and corporate boards to rein in compensation because it's in shareholders' interests to do so. Shareholders own these companies, not employees, although the firms have long operated as if employees' interests were paramount. Lower pay probably will mean higher profits and bigger capital cushions against potential losses.
Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts will not endure unless Republicans clearly understand the meaning of "the machine" that he ran against and defeated.
Yes, it is about a general revulsion at government spending, what is sometimes called "the blob." But blobs are shapeless things, and in the days ahead we will see the Obama White House work hard to reshape the blob into a deficit hawk. Unless the facade is ripped away, the machine will survive.
The revolt against the machine began with voters' 2006 ouster of the Republican majority in Congress for making a mockery of fiscal rectitude. An angry electorate then swept Barack Obama into office. Now Mr. Obama is saying voters elected him on the same wave of anger that elected Scott Brown. Sorry, but Messrs. Obama and Brown are not surfing in the same political ocean.
Daniel Henninger discusses the political machine that Scott Brown ran against.
Podcast: Hear Daniel Henninger's audio version of Wonder Land. The central battle in our time is over political primacy. It is a competition between the public sector and the private sector over who defines the work and the institutions that make a nation thrive and grow.
In 1962, President John F. Kennedy planted the seeds that grew the modern Democratic Party. That year, JFK signed executive order 10988 allowing the unionization of the federal work force. This changed everything in the American political system. Kennedy's order swung open the door for the inexorable rise of a unionized public work force in many states and cities.
This in turn led to the fantastic growth in membership of the public employee unions—The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and the teachers' National Education Association.
They broke the public's bank. More than that, they entrenched a system of taking money from members' dues and spending it on political campaigns. Over time, this transformed the Democratic Party into a public-sector dependency.
Daniel Henninger discusses what Scott Brown's victory means for Democrats.
They became different than the party of FDR, Truman, Meany and Reuther. That party was allied with the fading industrial unions, which in turn were tethered to a real world of profit and loss.
The states in the North and on the coasts turned blue because blue is the color of the public-sector unions. This tax-and-spend milieu became the training ground for their politicians.
Until the Obama exception, the only recent Democrats electable into the presidency had to be centrist Southerners little known to the country. Every post-Kennedy liberal who tried, failed, including Teddy.
What an irony it is that in the same week the Kennedy labor legacy hit the wall in Massachusetts, the NEA approved a $1 million donation from the union's contingency fund to the Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate. It is this Kennedy legacy, the public union tax and spend machine, that drove blue Massachusetts into revolt Tuesday.
He sent public budgets toward the cliff.
Yes, health care was ground zero, but Massachusetts—like New Jersey, like California, like New York—has been building toward this explosion for years.
According to a study done for the Massachusetts Institute for a New Commonwealth, spending in specific public categories there skyrocketed the past 20 years (1987 to 2007).
Public safety: up 139%; social services, 130%; education, 44%. And of course Medicaid Madness, up 163%, before MassCare kicked in more Medicaid obligations.
But here's the party's self-destroying kicker: Feeding the public unions' wage demands starved other government responsibilities. It ruined our ability to have a useful debate about any other public functions.
Massachusetts' spending fell for mental health, the environment, housing and higher education. The physical infrastructure in blue states is literally falling apart. But look at those public wage and pension-related outlays. Ever upward.
Enter the Obama administration, the first one born and raised inside this public bubble, with zero private-sector Cabinet members. Act one: a $787 billion stimulus bill, which they brag mainly saved state and local jobs. Then came the six-month odyssey for Obama's $1 trillion health-care bill, dripping with taxes. Independent voters felt like everything was being sucked into a public-sector vortex.
This is why New Jersey's Chris Christie won running on nothing. It's why in California Carly Fiorina is within three points of Sen. Barbara Boxer. It's why the party JFK enabled, "the machine," is hitting the wall.
1. President Obama delivered the first state of the union address of his presidency, a 71-minute speech that ranked as the sixth longest in presidential history. (The famously long-winded Bill Clinton has four of the five longest speeches.) The White House posted its version of the highlights from the speech and you can read the whole thing for yourself; Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell delivered a solid if not spectacular Republican response that will likely cement his status as a rising star within the party. The gaffe of the night? That came from Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito who mouthed the words "not true" when the president condemned the recent Citizens United ruling. We posted our first thoughts on the speech last night. Here's a quick summary: 1) Values matter: From the start of the speech to its ends, the common thread was an appeal to the country's shared values of what it means to be an American. 2) Health care humility: Obama waited more than thirty minutes before raising the touchy topic of health care. But, when he did, he talked about it in a self-deprecating tone aimed at defusing some of the vitriol surrounding the issue: "By now it should be fairly obvious I didn't take on health care because it was good politics," Obama said in a line that drew chuckles in the chamber. 3) Blaming Bush: On at least three occasions, Obama referenced the previous administration to explain the problems left to him and the country. After rattling off a list of spending and tax cuts by former president George W. Bush, Obama exclaimed: "All of this is before I walked in the door."
2. In the midst of the state of the union madness came an absolutely fascinating national survey conducted by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Republican pollster Glen Bolger for National Public Radio. The entire poll is well worth checking out but since you're probably getting over your SOTU hangover -- is that a thing? -- here's five key data points from the survey: 1) Republicans lead on the generic ballot question -- which party's candidate would you vote for if the election were held today? -- 44 percent to 39 percent, an improvement from the statistical tie (43 percent R, 42 percent D) in a July 2009 NPR poll. (Check out Bolger's blog post on the generic ballot findings and what they mean.) 2) Nearly six in ten adults (58 percent) blame former president George W. Bush for the "current state of the economy" while just 33 percent blame President Obama. 3) A huge majority of those polled -- 70 percent -- said a "jobs bill" should be either the first or second priority of the administration moving forward. That number crushed a focus on a deficit reduction plan (49 percent) or on a financial regulation bill (34 percent). Interestingly, health care was not offered by the pollsters as an option for the administration to focus on moving forward. 4) The country is deeply divided over whether the change Obama is bringing is good or bad. Fifty percent call it "the right change" while 46 percent call it the "wrong change." 5) Speaking of divided, 49 percent approve of the job Obama is doing whle 48 percent disapprove. There is no such uncertainty of public opinion about Congress; 28 percent approve of how Congress is doing its job while 67 percent disapprove. ALSO READ: Greenberg's analysis of the numbers.
3. Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) appears to be in genuine jeopardy of falling in next Tuesday's Democratic primary at the hands of state Treasurer Dan Hynes, a loss that would reinforce the anti-incumbent bent of the American electorate. A recent Chicago Tribune poll showed Quinn, who took over from disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), leading Hynes by just four points -- a rapid erosion for the incumbent in less than two months time. In a conference call with reporters Wednesday, Hynes campaign manager Mike Rendina claimed that "every minute we are gaining support across the state." Hynes pollster Jef Pollock argued that Quinn was simply unelectable in a general election and comparing him to New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) who lost his reelection bid after months (and months) of polling showed the incumbent in the low 40/high 30s in ballot tests. "Quinn is in a far worse situation than Jon Corzine," added Pollock. While a loss by Quinn would almost certainly become part of a broader national narrative for voters' rejection of their elected officials, the Illinois race has some unique traits that make it somewhat difficult to draw lessons from. First, there is the Blagojevich factor. Blagojevich's downfall has become the stuff of parody but it has left a lasting scar in the minds of Illinois voters that Quinn, despite being no friend of Blago, has struggled to overcome. Second, the accidental release of hundreds of prisoners by Quinn's Administration has handed Hynes a potent issue by which to paint the incumbent as out of touch. Still, a sitting governor -- even an appointed one -- is a big deal. And Hynes is now well within striking distance.
4. Republicans are falling all over themselves to challenge embattled Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in Arkansas with Rep. John Boozman (R) set to run and former University of Arkansas star Jim Lindsey apparently also looking at the contest. Boozman, who has held the 3rd district since 2001, is reportedly going to join the race later this week although he does not appear to be clearing the field -- or at least not yet -- of serious challengers as state Sen. Gilbert Baker has said he will not drop out no matter who gets in. While Lincoln has had to beat back retirement rumors since Democrats lost the Massachusetts special election race last week, the more crowded the field gets, the better the chances that Lincoln could survive if the GOP badly fractures itself in the May 18 primary.
5. Republicans are falling all over themselves to challenge embattled Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in Arkansas with Rep. John Boozman (R) set to run and former University of Arkansas star Jim Lindsey apparently also looking at the contest. Boozman, who has held the 3rd district since 2001, is reportedly going to join the race later this week although he does not appear to be clearing the field -- or at least not yet -- of serious challengers as state Sen. Gilbert Baker has said he will not drop out no matter who gets in. While Lincoln has had to beat back retirement rumors since Democrats lost the Massachusetts special election race last week, the more crowded the field gets, the better the chances that Lincoln could survive if the GOP badly fractures itself in the May 18 primary.
Nicolas Cage is the latest example of the notion that it's not what you make that matters, but how you make do with what you have. (That's a saying from my grandmother, Big Mama, who never made more than $13,000 a year, yet knew how to manage her money.)
The Oscar-winning actor's Las Vegas mansion was recently foreclosed on and sold for nearly $5 million, reports the Associated Press. Cage has said his former business manager gave him bad advice and that allegedly led to his financial mess.
So, um, did the man advise him not to pay his mortgage? Did he have his mortgage payments invested? I understand some celebrities are busy acting or singing or playing ball, but just like the rest of us working folks, they have to take care of their own business. Even when you hire someone to help you with your money, you have to do your homework. You have to check up on what the adviser is doing.
Do you think it's possible to raise a level-headed, unspoiled child when you give him a car worth more than what the average American pays for his or her home? (The average home price, by the way, was $290,600 in Dec. 2009, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.)
In her Celebritology blog, the Post's Liz Kelly reports that Sean "Diddy" Combs gave his 16-year-old son a $360,000 Maybach, a luxury sedan. Oh, and the kid doesn't even have a driver's license.
I have never heard of that model of car and even if I had it like that, I wouldn't give it like that. Would you? Let's talk celebrity cash. If you were loaded like Diddy, would you give your child a sweet sixteen party and car collectively worth what several households make in one year?
Q: I've completed the budget template from "The Power to Prosper" and realize that I'm spending over my means by about $200 a month. I don't use my charge card. What am I doing wrong? Where would you suggest the first place for me to cut back should be?
A: Without looking at your budget and talking to you, I can't say what you should cut out of your budget. That's a very personal thing. It all depends on what you value. But good for you to complete a budget and realize you are living above your means. That's one of the first steps toward getting your financial life together.
Try this. Keep a spending journal for 30 days. Write down every single penny you spend, including when you pay your rent or mortgage, car payment, etc. That may help you see where you are overspending. Often it's the little expenses that can sink you. Additionally, you might try the envelope money management system. Read more about it in a column I wrote recently, Envelopes can help spendthrifts.
Q: What are your views on Roth 401k's? I'm considering allocating a portion of my contributions to this option as I am young and in a lower tax bracket than I anticipate being at in retirement.
A: I'm a fan of the Roth IRA if you qualify. And I really like the Roth 401(k) because there are no income bars you have to jump over. Here's how a Roth works. Withdrawals from a Roth are tax-free, including earnings, if you take them after more than five years and after you reach age 59 ½.
In a traditional 401(k) plan, you invest with pretax dollars which reduces your taxable income and the taxes you pay that year. You pay taxes when you withdraw the money at retirement.
With a Roth 401(k) and a Roth IRA, you pay taxes on the money before you invest. When you withdraw your funds, including any earnings, it is not taxed.
So the question is: do you want to pay taxes on your money now, or when you retire?
Additionally, with a traditional Roth IRA, there are income limits, meaning if you make over a certain amount you can't contribute to a Roth. However, that's not the case with a Roth 401 (k), which makes it good choice for highly paid employees. If you aren't paying high taxes now, a Roth is a good choice.
Buying Power
"Empowerment experiment." That's what John and Maggie Anderson call their quest to only patronize African American owned businesses last year. The controversial adventure allowed the Oak Park, Ill. couple to take a closer look at the state of black owned establishments.
"There was a feeling that now we have really created a vehicle to force ourselves to look into the mirror and address some of the issues we don't want to talk about," said John Anderson.
African Americans have nearly $850 billion in spending power, but very little of that money circulates through "underserved" communities, reports Ted Gregory of the Chicago Tribune in Adding up family's year buying black.
While some embraced the experiment, others deemed it as an exercise of racism, an idea that the Andersons reject. "This is really about African Americans taking ownership of a problem," John said.
In the waning days of 2009, many advisors and market analysts, when asked for their thoughts about the new year, opted to emphasize the risks. What if the Fed began raising interest rates? Did the deteriorating job market signal a double-dip recession on the horizon? Or would the Fed's willingness to keep lending rates so low, for so long, spark inflation as an economic recovery gathered momentum?
Amidst all the angst, it's reassuring to note that at least one of those clouds-the slumping U.S. dollar-may have a silver lining in 2010, in the shape of hefty returns from investing in non-U.S. markets and, in particular, from increasing allocations to emerging markets. True, Asian markets were hard-hit by the credit crunch of 2008, and few countries have been immune to the recession that followed. Nations from Iceland to Dubai and Greece have suffered major economic blows that make them areas to avoid. But that leaves investors with a lot of opportunities to diversify their holdings and reduce the risk associated with their portfolios, while also capturing some upside potential if the dollar continues its decline against other major currencies.
Take a look at Brazil. In 2009, its Bovespa (Ibovespa)index rallied 82.7%; the dollar's plunge against the Brazilian real last year turned that into a gain of about 145% in dollar terms.
Not every non-dollar investment will produce such dramatic gains. But veteran investors argue that this is the time to go global, with many overseas economies offering higher economic growth rates over the long term, with potential for extra upside if market guru Bill Gross and his Pimco colleagues prove correct in their predictions that the "new normal" means a falling dollar.
BEYOND OUR BORDERS
When it comes to global diversification, most advisors already have a lot of ground to make up compared with their European counterparts. "We're more parochial in our investment views than anyone in the world," argues Erik Davidson, managing director of investments for Western states at the private bank of Wells Fargo. "I have to remind our clients that 97% of the world's population, 75% of its economic production and two-thirds of the stock market capitalization is now outside our borders. And we should be following those trends in our portfolios."
Some financial advisors are already taking advantage of the long-term opportunity. Rob Lutts, president and chief investment officer of Cabot Money Management in Salem, Mass., has already allocated about 40% of the aggressive growth stock portfolios he manages for high-net-worth clients to emerging markets. "Keeping a high allocation to global markets, particularly emerging markets, gives you the potential for moderate returns in local currency to become bigger when they're translated into dollars. That's the gravy. The meat? That these are going to continue to be some of the highest growth markets around."
In 2009, many advisors kept their eyes closer to home. That was both logical and necessary: When the recovery got under way, the simplest way to benefit was to "go long" U.S. stocks and bonds; the best-performing equity mutual funds of the year were leveraged index funds tied to the Nasdaq 100, which soared as the markets staged a recovery. But with that low-hanging fruit long plucked, advisors like Lutts say the best place to seek out future gains is "beyond our own borders."
The reasons are many. While the U.S. economic recovery could be slow and growth is never likely to exceed a few percentage points a year, the emerging markets-and even some developed markets-may post more rapid growth rates, whether because they're rapidly developing economies (Brazil, China and India) or because they will benefit from high commodity prices in years to come (Russia and others). "There are reasons to doubt the viability of the dollar as the world's reserve currency over the long run," suggests Alexander Kozhemiakin, director of emerging-markets strategies at Standish, a subsidiary of BNY Mellon.
While the dollar is still the safe haven of choice in times of turbulence, the further the crisis recedes into the past, the more likely it is that the dollar's role will diminish as well, Kozhemiakin believes. That's a view shared by pundits like Warren Buffett and Gross, who believe the dollar's decline may be a longer-term phenomenon as the U.S. government's need to finance its burgeoning deficit, coupled with the Fed's determination to avoid a double-dip recession by keeping interest rates low, make owning dollar-denominated assets less appealing for investors.
BEYOND OUR BORDERS
When it comes to global diversification, most advisors already have a lot of ground to make up compared with their European counterparts. "We're more parochial in our investment views than anyone in the world," argues Erik Davidson, managing director of investments for Western states at the private bank of Wells Fargo. "I have to remind our clients that 97% of the world's population, 75% of its economic production and two-thirds of the stock market capitalization is now outside our borders. And we should be following those trends in our portfolios."
Some financial advisors are already taking advantage of the long-term opportunity. Rob Lutts, president and chief investment officer of Cabot Money Management in Salem, Mass., has already allocated about 40% of the aggressive growth stock portfolios he manages for high-net-worth clients to emerging markets. "Keeping a high allocation to global markets, particularly emerging markets, gives you the potential for moderate returns in local currency to become bigger when they're translated into dollars. That's the gravy. The meat? That these are going to continue to be some of the highest growth markets around."
In 2009, many advisors kept their eyes closer to home. That was both logical and necessary: When the recovery got under way, the simplest way to benefit was to "go long" U.S. stocks and bonds; the best-performing equity mutual funds of the year were leveraged index funds tied to the Nasdaq 100, which soared as the markets staged a recovery. But with that low-hanging fruit long plucked, advisors like Lutts say the best place to seek out future gains is "beyond our own borders."
The reasons are many. While the U.S. economic recovery could be slow and growth is never likely to exceed a few percentage points a year, the emerging markets-and even some developed markets-may post more rapid growth rates, whether because they're rapidly developing economies (Brazil, China and India) or because they will benefit from high commodity prices in years to come (Russia and others). "There are reasons to doubt the viability of the dollar as the world's reserve currency over the long run," suggests Alexander Kozhemiakin, director of emerging-markets strategies at Standish, a subsidiary of BNY Mellon.
While the dollar is still the safe haven of choice in times of turbulence, the further the crisis recedes into the past, the more likely it is that the dollar's role will diminish as well, Kozhemiakin believes. That's a view shared by pundits like Warren Buffett and Gross, who believe the dollar's decline may be a longer-term phenomenon as the U.S. government's need to finance its burgeoning deficit, coupled with the Fed's determination to avoid a double-dip recession by keeping interest rates low, make owning dollar-denominated assets less appealing for investors.
DIVERSIFY, BUT CAREFULLY
For advisors hoping to transform both the reality of higher growth rates outside the United States and the possibility of a declining greenback into higher returns for clients, the challenge is figuring out how to accomplish it. The answer-be diversified, but be very picky-may be the only way to go, say Kozhemiakin and Don Gervais, global head of fundamental equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Placing a big bet on any single high-growth region is foolish. Sure, China's stock market soared about 300% in two years, from 2005 until 2007. But what goes up can come down-are your clients prepared to put an outsize portion of their portfolios in a market that can move 7% or 8% in a day?
"We spent much of 2009 underweight the dollar and overweight Asia, but not overweight a single country or market," says Michael Ho, CIO at Mellon Capital Management. While China's enormous growing middle class may be alluring for stock market investors, Ho is just as interested in owning the yen (but not Japanese stocks or bonds, whose value may be hurt by that country's renewed deflationary pressures).
Michael Church, president of Addison Capital, a Yardley, Pa.-based advisory firm, is seeking out ways to profit from what he expects to be a dollar that will continue to diminish in value. "The strategy can be as simple as investing overseas, especially in foreign sovereign debt issued by countries that have a big interest-rate differential like Australia, Canada and Norway."
The 2008 to 2009 market downturn was the most tumultuous period in U.S. financial history since the Great Depression. It was also a wake-up call for financial advisors, who faced declining revenue and eroding profits as they worked longer and harder to meet the demands of those challenging days. And the challenges may not be behind them. Lesson learned: Nothing is static. One must always be prepared for change.
Many advisors have responded to these times by looking closely at how their businesses are run, where expenses are going, how teams can be more effective, what operational efficiencies can be gained and what changes to business practices must be made to ensure sustainability and long-term success. They are coming to recognize, more than ever, that their own business success is driven by the same principles espoused to clients: establishing clear goals, analyzing options, making ongoing performance assessments and periodic adjustments-all to be executed with discipline to promote a positive long-term outcome.
The Quantuvis Best Practices: Business Performance Study 2009, sponsored by Genworth Financial, provides the relevant empirical benchmarks advisors are looking for. The results will be published in Financial Planning as a four-part series. The study provides a broad view of business performance that will help advisors effectively navigate the days ahead. As the study series continues, we expect a rich pool of information across business disciplines.
A Broader View
Our inaugural study had 1,006 participants, representing early, emerging and mature firms across all business, affiliation and practice models. This is the first study to separate silo-style practices from ensembles and report on each type, based on our experience that the strategy, cost structures and goals of these firms vary, and therefore warrant individual review. Business models represented included investment advisory, investment management, insurance, financial planning, insurance, and wealth management. An equally diverse participant mix is reflected in the affiliation models, with participants across: Independent broker-dealer (IBD)-only, IBD with insurance, IBD with planning RIA, primarily RIA, RIA, regional brokerage firm, national brokerage firm and bank/trust company.
A New Class of Top Performers: 1QA
One of the goals of this study was to provide a performance comparison relevant to advisors across every practice, service and affiliation model. With this in mind, we created a new category of business performance: 1QA. This stands for first-quartile advisors or the top quartile of advisors based on total owner income (comprising owner compensation, bonuses and benefits, plus operating profits). Counting both compensation and profits in this way accounts for the disparities in the methods advisors use to divide their income between labor compensation and profit distributions.
By definition, of course, one would expect 1QAs to outperform non-1QAs (the remaining 75% of the population), but what is striking is the size of the performance gap. As noted in Median Performance by Practice Model, at left, performance far exceeds that of their peers. For instance, 1QA revenue, income and profits significantly outpace those of non-1QAs, with 1QAs showing 5.1 times greater revenue, 5.1 times greater operating profits and 4.8 times more owner(s) income. Even accounting for multiple owners in silos and ensembles, with a median of two owners and three advisors, 1QAs' median income per owner of $417,000 is still nearly four times greater than non-1QAs' income per owner of $113,000.
A breakdown of performance ratios between 1QA firms and non-1QA firms, as shown in the charts on page 60-Median Expenses, Operating Profit and Fee-Based Assets Per Client-further highlights the magnitude of this performance gap, which is nearly a chasm.
This led us to explore the reasons for such enhanced performance. Among our findings was that 1QAs spent significantly more per client than non-1QAs: $3,181 versus $1,000. This suggests that those firms that invest in staff and infrastructure are better equipped to grow and drive increased revenue, income and profits.
A closer look at the role of the client base of 1QA firms provides further insight.
As noted in Service Model, shown at left. as firms move into the top quartile, they tend to shift their practices into wealth management. The broader range of services they provide result in the higher expense per client-the business development, service offering and staffing model required to support a wealth management practice is deeper and, of course, pricier. Part two in the study series, which will be released in spring 2010, will report on correlations between business development practices and enhanced business performance.
One question on everyone's mind is just how bad was 2008 for various firms, given the market declines? Surprisingly, not as bad as you might think-on paper at least. Across all participants, median revenue grew 3.8% in 2008. Only 36% of firms lost revenue, while 64% saw positive revenue growth. Median owner income rose 1.8% from 2007 to 2008, and median operating profits increased 6.5%.
How is it that firms saw gains, nominal though they may be, in the year of the most brutal market crash since the Great Depression? The saving grace of this situation was timing. Strong financial performance in the first three quarters of 2008 helped mitigate overall calendar-year performance. Consider further that the second half of the decline was contained to the first quarter of 2009, followed by an impressive recovery. Had the six-month period of decline taken place in one calendar year, financial statements would have fared much, much worse.
Nonetheless, all affiliation models experienced an overall decline in assets under management performance in 2008, providing a more realistic view of the dismal landscape they were dealing with. This in turn affected fee-based billings and revenue.
At the same time, many practices took on new clients. Given the bill-in-arrears style of most advisors, the impact new clients had on AUM was faster to show up in most firms than was their impact on revenue. While 2008 showed modest gains compared to prior years double-digit growth averages, the real story here is that, given the timing, most advisors did not feel the paper gains of 2008 in their pocketbooks
As the financial meltdown drained investors' assets a year ago, many took refuge in the booming bond market in order to bolster their retirement portfolios. But with observers' outlook for fixed income this year ranging from guarded to dismal, retirees and pre-retirees are likely to find themselves wading back into equities.
Common sense would dictate seeking out the beaten-down asset, which some might still think is domestic equities. Yet, even though stocks are generally expected to outperform bonds this year, another economic dip could disrupt expectations for modest gains in 2010. As a result, many advisors appear to be avoiding plain vanilla-and instead are seeking out international equities and other nontraditional assets that don't correlate to the S&P.
Even as advisors seek out growth opportunities for their clients, however, risk management obviously remains a priority. With one eye on long-term growth and the other on protecting a client's retirement assets, big losses are much more disastrous than sizable gains are beneficial.
With more questions than answers about where the economy and markets are headed in 2010, advisors know they are going to have to be nimble this year. "We do think there are opportunities for returns in 2010, but [earning them] will require very good securities selection and pretty active management instead of just saying that we're back to the days of 60/40 and I can sleep well at night," says Tim Knepp, chief investment officer for Genworth Financial.
STILL STOCKING UP?
Of course, with the S&P 500's dramatic rally last year, investors didn't have to look very far for growth in 2009. J. Graydon Coghlan, president and chief executive officer of Coghlan Financial Group in San Diego, says his clients' gains averaged around 24% or 25% for 2009. "That isn't out of the ordinary," he says. "It wasn't as if we were completely separated from where everyone should be. The S&P was up in that range, so it's not as if we were creating magic."
Coghlan expects technology stocks to be a leading sector this year. He also expects to see the equity market continue to perform, driven by improved earnings. Thus far, many large companies have been underestimating their expected earnings so that they can beat them. The asset allocation Coghlan is using right now is about 15% in cash, close to 12% international equities, 35% in bonds and the balance (38%) in domestic stocks.
Genworth, meanwhile, has had an emphasis on yield and income orientation as opposed to just relying on capital gains, Knepp says. His investment team doesn't want to be completely dependent on earnings growth or expansion of multiples, which makes it guarded on equities. Within equities, however, yield is a good emphasis for retirees. Companies that have strong cash flows, pricing power and good balance sheets-such as healthcare, consumer staples and some tech companies-can support a dividend.
But Knepp is also concerned about some vulnerability on the downside with the S&P because so much of the rally has been supported by liquidity in one form or another from the federal government. One factor that might help the S&P's earnings going forward, Knepp adds, is that over time the components of the index are getting more of their sales and profits from outside the U.S.
Nevertheless, with the Treasury and Fed expected to back off their support, advisors and their clients are going to find out how much of this market rally was stimulus-driven. Jeffrey Phillips, chief investment officer of Rehmann Financial, a financial planning firm in Saginaw, Mich., believes the valuations have priced in the expected impact of the economic stimulus, but without a sustainable job recovery he is concerned that the domestic market will move sideways or even negatively.
"There is so much government involvement right now, which makes this business a lot more difficult than it was three or four years ago," he says.
Rick Pitcairn, chief investment officer for Pitcairn, a multifamily office in Jenkintown, Pa., acknowledges that much of the recovery is stimulus-led, "so the question marks aren't completely removed. We aren't in this state of nirvana." He still believes the data clearly shows we are in an early-stage recovery. "How it winds itself out will really revolve around Fed policy and whether or not and to what degree inflation takes hold," he says.
DOWNSIDE PROTECTION
Advisors who spoke to Financial Planning for this article are focusing on long-term growth for their clients' retirement portfolios, as they should be. What they're not doing is trying to score big hits, to make back money their clients may have lost in the downturn. The marketplace is too often led by emotion, Pitcairn says. He recently heard from an equity analyst whose research found that despite the strong returns we saw in 2009, the typical individual investor really didn't participate in the rally.
"People put too much money in cash and left it there," Pitcairn says. "It's either a sick cycle of fear, like it was in 2008, or a cycle of greed like it was in 1999. Part of the investment policy process is to wash out that emotion-led decision-making and to move toward an understanding of one's investment goals-and looking to capitalize on a short-term market trend."
Pitcairn released a set of guidelines in December called Seven Principles for Managing Your Assets in a Maybe-Recovery. One such guideline: that the best time for an investor to diversify may be when some of the assets in the portfolio have lost value.
"If you're led by emotions, you were very loath in March to say you wanted equities-because nobody wanted equities then," Pitcairn says. He strips emotion from the decision-making process, he explains, by following a long-term investment policy.
Even with such a policy, Phillips says, many of his clients remain hesitant to put their sidelined cash to work. "But at the same time, they're getting an itchy finger because they can't get anything on the fixed-income side," he says.
In their quest to move upmarket and serve wealthier clients, more advisors are interested in pursuing the ultra-affluent-those investors and families with investable assets of at least $30 million. Should you join them?
At the end of 2008, there were approximately 774,000 ultra-affluent individuals worldwide, according to the 2009 World Wealth Report by CapGemini. Now, there's no doubt that those ultra-affluent families can generate a lot of income. Given the ever-increasing level of financial complexity that comes with immense wealth, there is now more demand than ever before for advisors who can ably serve the ultra-affluent. What's more, the bear market prompted some advisors to look for a client base that is largely impervious to big economic shifts and volatile market cycles, and they believe that the ultra-affluent fits the bill.
But if you're among those advisors, be warned: Working with this select group of clients can be extremely challenging in terms of both effective client service and intelligent business management. If you're trying to pursue this market, or you're just curious about it, it's helpful to examine its key characteristics and see how you must structure and run your practice to decide if it's a path you should consider.
FIVE KEYS
There are five core characteristics that the ultra-affluent tend to have in common when understanding how they relate to and use their sizable wealth. These five characteristics provide the framework for how advisors need to approach and work with the ultra-affluent.
* Complexity is the first and most significant characteristic defining this group. Tremendous wealth brings complications for many parts of their financial and personal lives. Even before you consider working with them, you should first comprehend the kind of complexity you would need to manage. Consider that an ultra-affluent family will probably consist of a patriarch, a matriarch and perhaps their two adult children. The adult children may each have several children, some of them adults. With these three generations, and a fourth soon on the way, you'll be confronted with planning not just 10 to 20 years out, as you're accustomed to now, but 100 to 200 years out.
Also consider the various entities that many ultra-affluent families control-professional corporations that support the family, limited liability companies, limited partnerships, various separate trusts and maybe even family foundations. You must understand each of these different entities from tax, compliance, planning, investment advisory, estate planning and gift perspectives. In addition, there's bill paying, accounting and expense management for each of these entities. Plus, various family members probably have different sets of personal, education funding, tax planning, charity and retirement goals that require detailed cash flow and investment management from a multigenerational wealth-transfer perspective.
And don't forget emotional complexity. The patriarch and matriarch of the family might each have different types of relationships with each of their children. The siblings each have unique interpersonal relationships with one another, with their children and with the children of their siblings. All of these various emotions and relationships come into play when managing the finances and dealing with people both within and outside of the family.
Great wealth raises the level of complexity in family and personal relationships, tending to magnify both eccentricities and animosities. Indeed, "Too Rich to Worry? Not in This Downturn," an article in the New York Times on Oct. 2, 2009, argued that the extremely wealthy have become particularly concerned about how the various people within their family units spend, save and invest the family money.
* Control. A major focus for many ultra-affluent investors is maintaining control over their money and every other significant situation in their lives. Because they see their professional advisors as the key to exerting this control, they typically have many advisors-ranging from an attorney and accountant to insurance professionals and investment advisors.
* Connections. Because contact with the right people is essential for success in both their personal and business lives, the ultra-affluent prize and protect their connections. In general, they have access to substantial numbers of influential people and have influence over those people.
* Capital. The ultra-affluent see capital not as money per se, but as the ability to deploy resources to make things happen-in other words, a means and not an end. For this reason, they are often more concerned with preserving their wealth (and thus their ability to accomplish big things) than they are with growing it.
* Charity. The tax incentives for philanthropic actions, plus the authentic charitable desire of many ultra-affluent Americans combine to make charitable gifting important in the lives of this group.
ALL IN THE FAMILY OFFICE
What the ultra-affluent most want and need are answers to their complicated challenges-real solutions backed by expertise and world-class service. They expect their advisors to be highly qualified to address their issues. So to succeed in this market, you must set up your practice to demonstrate high quality at every point of client contact-and you must do so profitably.
Broadly speaking, there is one business model currently in use by advisory firms that serves ultra-affluent individuals: the family office. This organization is dedicated to meeting the entire range of its clients' financial and personal needs. A family office typically has an in-house staff to provide its core services of investment management and administrative services (such as recordkeeping, aggregated statements and accounting). All other services are usually outsourced to external specialists.
Operating a family office can be highly profitable, but only if the business is managed in specific ways. For example, you must minimize overhead expenses. If you try to build a complete in-house team of experts, your costs will be difficult to recoup. Instead, outsource the majority of work to qualified experts.
Create an effective network of experts. Your ability to bring together and manage a group of outside professionals who will work together is critical to your success. Successful advisors in family offices understand that they can't do it all themselves. While they may manage key items in-house (such as cash flow and investments, and the structures and relationships of the various entities and trusts), they outsource expertise in most other areas to specialists. They make it their business to know the experts in every field related to the management of ultra-affluent family affairs.
Over my roughly 300-year career observing the financial services world, I've discovered that the very best advice about succeeding in this business comes from people who have worked closely with hundreds of advisory firms. I'm going to share the insights of two of them here.
I'll start with Tracy Beckes, who has emerged as the business coach who seems most consistently to foster impressive life changes and positive results from planning practitioners. Beckes has an MBA from the University of Oregon and once co-led the coach training program at the prestigious Hendricks Institute in Ojai, Calif. I recently interviewed her for my newsletter, and she offered her insights on what she calls The Essential Formula for creating a successful financial planning practice.
The Essential Formula emerged from Beckes' own coaching experience. As she looked through the case studies from her financial planning clients, Beckes found a pattern that most advisors-who are deeply engaged in their own practices and familiar with only their own situations-couldn't possibly perceive. "I sat down with everything I knew about the most successful advisors I'd worked with, and all the things that started to happen as they began to achieve their business and personal goals," she says. "In every case, they would totally transform the practice management side of the equation in favor of the advisor, all in very similar ways."
FINDING YOUR NICHE
The Essential Formula is written up in detail in my newsletter, and also in The Coaching Report, which you can get for free from my website. But the quick version is that it starts with your selecting a client base that you personally resonate with, whether it be oral surgeons or people who fix the wires for the phone company, and-as quickly as possible-begin to specialize. If you can manage to do this, it opens up a whole lot of interlocking efficiencies in every corner of your practice.
Suddenly, you're able to train yourself to serve a small, distinct subset of the human population, and immerse yourself in the marketing issues of, say, your horse trainers or golf pros, the pension plan provisions for the hospital administrators down the street, or the business challenges that your swimming pool and spa servicing clients face-more completely than any other advisor. Your conversations with clients become effortless and rich.
This also allows you to get the best of all practice management worlds: You can create a client experience that is highly customized to the very specific needs of airline pilots, owners of dry cleaners or senior executives with a large local firm, but offer, essentially, the same services in a similar way to all of them. Your staff knows exactly what to do with these people, and you know exactly where to find them, how to market to their most pressing concerns, and how to get them talking to one another about you. The more you get to know these people, the more you can envision a dream service package for them. That means superior service, more value for the same work (and price), and more referrals within their network of acquaintances.
Beckes says that most advisory firms are built on a very different, inefficient foundation of outlier clients-that is, a bunch of people you picked up along the way who have little in common. This diffuses your focus. Most advisory firms experience a lot of confusion about who gets what service and who wants what to happen (and when), leading to a lot of unproductive catch-up time, weak job descriptions, difficulties in hiring and evaluating staff, insurmountable marketing challenges and crushing workloads when the markets go south and everybody panics.
Developing that standardized, customized client experience may be the most important part of The Essential Formula because it lets you break down, step by step, what has to be done with each client. You can then train each member of your staff to play a specific role in the process, giving you more personal capacity. "Capacity is so valuable that it requires a lot of work to create," Beckes says. "In the final analysis, your only inflexible resource is your time."
MAKING CHANGES HAPPEN
Holding that thought, let's move to another business consultant: Spenser Segal, president and founder of ActiFi. After offering practice management advice to thousands of planning firms, Segal has found that most advisors are not good at translating the things they want to happen in their firm into highly specific action steps. Asking you to build efficiency into your practice is a little like asking you to build your own automobile, he says. You know what you want and generally how you want it to work. But how do you acquire the parts and assemble it?
Let's say you want to grow your firm. ActiFi has a consulting software model called RoadMap, which takes that goal and forces you to make it incrementally more specific. Do you want to grow profits? Top-line assets under management? Number of clients? Or do you want to grow your capacity by taking on new employees?
Let's say you select "profits." The software takes you to a variety of options related to increasing revenue and reducing expenses, and each of those options leads to specific action steps. Suppose you want to increase assets under management from existing clients. Click on that tab and the screen invites you to quantify your goal. Let's say you select $20 million in new assets. By when? You pick a date; say, next December 31.
"Notice," Segal says, "that you have moved, in a matter of minutes, from this very nebulous idea of 'growth' to a very specific goal of increasing assets under management by $20 million, to be achieved by deepening the relationships you have with existing clients, and you want it to happen by the end of the year."
In the 1930s it occurred to a bunchof researchers that the stars and planets should have been pulled apart by their own mass. Since gravity alone couldn't keep the galaxies in place, they concluded an invisible substance called "cosmic glue" must be keeping them together. When the atom was split in the 1940s, the cosmic glue was identified as the "strong force," which keeps neutrons and protons happy together.
I've been thinking quite a bit about our regulatory environment. I am fairly certain that by the end of 2010, we financial advisors will have new guidelines for practicing our craft, which should serve as our own version of cosmic glue. The issues involve defining who is a fiduciary, when someone is acting in a fiduciary role and even the definition of fiduciary care itself.
A YOUNG PROFESSION
One of the reasons that this profession is so hard to define is that we're still in the nascent stages of development. Last year we celebrated the 40th birthday of the advent of financial planning. Forty years is nothing compared with the accounting and medical professions. And, because we've all come from different disciplines, how we practice differs greatly. Although we share a standardized process for financial planning, there is very little beyond the Investment Adviser's Act of 1940 that specifically directs us regarding how to conduct our businesses and our relationships with clients. We can call ourselves anything we want-financial advisor, financial planner, investment advisor, investment counselor, wealth manager.
When I started in this business, I called myself a financial planner. In 1984, Forbes magazine put a monkey in a three-piece suit on its front cover, with the tag line, "Anybody can call themselves a financial planner." It didn't take more than 30 seconds for me to find other ways to refer to my professional activities. I landed on the term "wealth manager" because my partner began using the phrase to describe how we gave institutional-level advice and support to our private clients. The way we describe ourselves, and the manner in which we manage our practices vary widely. We use different products and perform different services. We charge differently.
In my early days I had a Series 7 license. One day I was interviewed by a financial reporter who told me that her newspaper didn't want her to use commissioned advisors as sources because they didn't want to give the impression that they endorsed any products. She asked me if I knew any fee-only planners; I didn't. She didn't either. That's when I decided that, if the press was going to pave my way, I'd be an idiot not to be a fee-only planner. I am no more ethical than I was, but I find it easier to be treated professionally because of it. This is another aspect of our practices that seems to divide our profession.
Mark Twain said, "Man is the only animal that has the True Religion-several of them." Whatever our background and orientation toward our industry, we seem to think that individually, we have the only true way of practicing. And because our bad apples are so visible in the press, we wag our fingers and declare we've got the best business model, the best method of compensation, and the best client service and support.
THE FIDUCIARY FUNCTION
The fiduciary issue is just one more thing that divides us. Let's face it: The term fiduciary is a legal term, with very specific legal interpretations, which describes an ethical relationship of trust and confidence. Some advisors believe using the term simply opens us up to potential lawsuits. The suitability standard has served us well since 1934, they say, and we should leave it alone.
Tiburon's CEO Summit late last year featured a panel that consisted of three top litigation attorneys. These guys are in the business of suing advisors. They explained how advisors need to think about their relationships and activities with clients. They discussed the concept of "functional" fiduciary, which, in its simplest terms, means if it walks like a duck and looks like a duck, it's a duck. Just because we might not accept fiduciary responsibility in our relationships, does not mean we evade it.
A few years ago an SEC regulator, speaking at an industry event, described the components of fiduciary duty. The FPA adopted a version of this definition as its Standards of Care and outlines. In plain English, the fiduciary role in a financial planning engagement:
• Put the client's best interests first;
• Act with due care and in utmost good faith;
• Do not mislead clients;
• Provide full and fair disclosure of all material facts; and
• Disclose and fairly manage all material conflicts of interest.
Similarly, the Committee for the Fiduciary Standard, a group of highly respected industry leaders, has proposed five core principles that its feels should be key to any new legislation or rulemaking. These are:
• Put the client's best interest first;
• Act with prudence; that is, with the skill, care, diligence and good judgment of a professional;
• Do not mislead clients; provide conspicuous, full and fair disclosure of all important facts;
• Avoid conflicts of interest; and
• Fully disclose and fairly manage, in the client's favor, unavoidable conflicts.
While there are subtle differences between the two, the most glaring similarity to me is the absence of the word fiduciary. When we remove the F word, what's left, I maintain, is the essence of who we are as practitioners.
PRINCIPLES COUNT
Look at these statements. Which could you not support? Which do not in some way reflect the relationship you have with your clients, whether it's formally declared or functionally performed?
I urge you to disregard the distractions of a business model, compensation or other practice details, and support and adopt the principles of these statements, whichever version you choose. They make up the invisible substance that keeps us together. These Standards of Care are our cosmic glue.
El número de hipotecas inversas suscritas en 2009 creció un 8%, hasta alcanzar las 2.700, y el importe medio fue de 350.000 euros, según un informe de Optima Mayores, que prevé que 2010 sea el año del "despegue definitivo" de este tipo de productos si finalmente se da la promulgación del reglamento que determine las condiciones, forma y requisitos con que ha de prestarse el asesoramiento a este producto.
Durante 2009, la consultora asesoró a más de 3.000 clientes, fundamentalmente mujeres con una edad de entre los 75-76 años que precisaban complementar sus ingresos mensuales con mayor necesidad.
El informe resalta que el pasado año fue bueno ya que la crisis financiera e inmobiliaria le afectó "positivamente", sumándose a estos dos efectos la necesidad de complementar las bajas pensiones por jubilación y viudedad.
En este sentido, también resalta que la sociedad española tiene una necesidad que la hipoteca inversa está llamada a cubrir, para lo que es necesario que los potenciales interesados tengan acceso a la información necesaria para tomar la decisión más acertada.
Actualmente, existen 20 entidades en España que ofrecen hipotecas inversas pero hay un número muy limitado que realmente respaldan el producto desde sus departamentos de riesgo mediante procedimientos concretos de tramitación.
BBK y Catalana Occidente lideraron el ránking de comercialización de las hipotecas inversa pero durante el año desaparecieron del mercado las ofertas de Caja Duero y Caja Navarra, que ocuparon puestos relevantes durante 2008, según explicó la consultora.
Por áreas geográficas, Madrid fue la región con mayor demanda durante el pasado ejercicio, ya que un 51% de los potenciales clientes se mostraron dispuestos a contratar este tipo de productos.
La hipoteca inversa es un producto financiero destinado fundamentalmente a personas mayores y ofrece al propietario de una vivienda la posibilidad de obtener dinero por ella sin venderla. Si el propietario fallece, los herederos podrán asumir el crédito o bien vender la vivienda para devolver al banco las cantidades anticipadas.
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